545
FXUS64 KOUN 150732
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
232 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Dangerously hot weather will occur today as the magnitude of the
low-level thermal ridge increases across the Southern Plains.
Afternoon temperatures will range from 100 to 110 deg F with heat
indices between 105 to 110 deg F. A Heat Advisory is in effect for
the entire area. One factor that will help it feel not as
miserable is a southerly breeze (at least compared to a calm
wind). However, it is definitely a day to take extra precautions
if you plan to be outdoors for any extended period of time.

For tonight, remnant showers and thunderstorms may approach
northern Oklahoma from Kansas in association with a weak
boundary/cold front. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms was
introduced to account for this possibility. No severe weather is
expected.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Forecast uncertainty has increased on Tuesday as most convective-
allowing models now indicate that a remnant boundary/weak
effective cold front from the previous night`s convection will
advance into Oklahoma--perhaps near or north of the I-40/I-44
corridor--by afternoon. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast
(HREF) has a 40% chance of composite reflectivity >40 dBZ along
I-40 to I-44 by late afternoon. The 12 km NAM also suggests there
could be a boundary in the area. As a result, opted to introduce a
20 to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the northern
half of Oklahoma. Given the uncertainty on the location of the
boundary, kept the area fairly broad and the probabilities below
the HREF for now. The primary hazard with any thunderstorms will
be damaging wind gusts give the large amount of downdraft CAPE
(>1500 J/kg). Locally heavy rainfall is also possible given the
potential for slow storm motions.

The location of this boundary will also modulate temperatures
Tuesday afternoon with the potential for lower temperatures (it`ll
still be hot) across northwest Oklahoma and higher temperatures
(pre-frontal torch) ahead of the boundary when compared to today.
A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for parts of the area for
Tuesday afternoon.

By Wednesday into Thursday, confidence remains high for a
significant pattern change across the Southern Plains as the
synoptic-scale pattern is forecast to transition to northwest flow
aloft. Northwest flow will allow for a stronger cold front push
to advance southward into Oklahoma and north Texas with a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. A cooler air mass will bring relief
to the heat in the front`s wake. The most likely scenario is high
temperatures will only be in the mid 80s to low 90s by Thursday.

Northwest flow will likely persist into the upcoming weekend with
the potential for an embedded trough and associated cold front
Saturday into Sunday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms
and continued below-average temperatures.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions with light to moderate southerly winds expected.
Some increase in high level clouds late tonight and tomorrow
across northern and western Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 101  78 103  76 /   0   0  30  20
Hobart OK        103  77 104  75 /   0   0  20  20
Wichita Falls TX 103  79 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          107  75 101  69 /   0  20  20  30
Ponca City OK    106  80 105  73 /   0  20  20  30
Durant OK        101  78 103  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11