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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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142 FXUS64 KOUN 180256 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 956 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 956 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Updated forecast this evening to lower POPs across the southeast. There still is the potential of some widely scattered showers as is seen with a few small showers developing near McAlester and east of Holdenville drifting south, as well as a few other showers just south of the Red River west of Denison. Right now do not expect showers to be widespread or warrant the higher POPs that were in the afternoon package. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 With the current MCV spinning out across across central Oklahoma, a surface boundary/summertime cold front pushing through our moist surface layer along with vorticity forcing in the mid-levels of the bottom of the trough, will keep storm POPs in through the afternoon across all but northern Oklahoma which is post-frontal. Cloud cover should limit instability to weak CAPE values as well as weak shear which should keep any convection below severe. For this evening, will limit storm POPs to southeast Oklahoma as this system slowly shifts eastward. For late tonight, another MCS expected with a shortwave rotating around the closed upper ridge high over eastern New Mexico with nighttime convection spilling into western Texas and possibly on the cold front pushing across northern Texas. As a result, will have very low storm POPs (15-20%) across the southern tier of our counties in western north Texas as well as southeast Oklahoma with the other system slowly exiting. High surface pressure settling over the the U.S. Upper Midwest Region will result in northeast winds for Thursday while the upper ridge over the Western U.S. starts building back into the Southern Plains. However will be tapping into more temperate Pacific air aloft so not expecting any strong warming under this ridge at least for the Southern Plains. As a result, expecting to see temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than normal on Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Although southeast Oklahoma should stay hot and muggy, could see some drier air come in from the northeast resulting in "less humid" conditions across the rest of our area for Thursday. The latest 12Z runs of the deterministic NAM & GFS advect upper 50s dewpoints while the DESI Grand ensemble has a 50-70% probability of it occurring. Although not as dry with the moisture, The latest 12Z ECMWF run is trending drier than the previous 00Z run as well as the NBM. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Rain/storm chances return Friday night and persist into early next week as our next system returns. A weak upper trough digs through the U.S. Great Plains from the main jet flow up in Canada. South winds do make a brief return on Saturday just ahead of our next summertime cold front passage during the time period of Sunday and Monday. The highest overall probability of rain will be on Sunday with 40-50% chances across our entire area. This system could linger across southeast Oklahoma on Tuesday with perhaps some wrap- around rain on Wednesday. Predictability is too low this far out for any mentions of severe weather this weekend. Could see some more elevated convection on Saturday but becoming more surface based on Sunday. Models suggest our low-level moisture increasing Saturday night with a potential of moderate instability (SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) although a very weak sheared environment. With the potential of a surface boundary we could be more storm active on Sunday. Temperaturewise, will continue to see the trend of slightly cooler than average temperatures and perhaps even a few degrees cooler from Sunday into early next week as we`ll be post-frontal under a trough. Latest Climate Prediction Center temperature guidance progs a 40-60% probability of leaning below normal in the 8-15 day outlook, so perhaps next weeks cooler trend will persist through the end of this month? However don`t expect Summer to be over as August is right around the corner but perhaps we`ll see break from any excessive heating or heat waves till then? && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 956 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 No aviation concerns for most of the forecast area. The potential exception is near KDUA where there is a low chance of showers tonight and early tomorrow, and some low potential of MVFR ceilings in stratus Thursday morning. The shower/storm chances are too low to include a tempo or VCSH/VCTS, and the potential of MVFR ceilings is not high enough to introduce it the TAF, but will add at least a SCT015 to indicate some potential of stratus clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 87 64 88 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 68 92 65 93 / 10 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 70 92 67 92 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 66 89 64 91 / 0 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 67 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 71 87 68 89 / 30 30 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...26