652
FXUS61 KOKX 132146
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
546 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure remains in place through the middle of
the week with subtle disturbances passing by. A weak surface
trough moves through the region Thursday, otherwise high
pressure dominates, moving offshore Friday night. A frontal
system will slowly approach from the west Friday night through
Sunday. The system`s cold front moves through Monday into Monday
night. A trough remains Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Updated for current conditions.

The area remains under an upper level trough with weak
disturbances rotating through the middle of the week. At the
surface, high pressure largely remains in control with mostly
dry conditions with seasonable temperatures.

Any cloud cover should clear out as the BL decouples tonight.
Clear skies and relatively light to calm winds should allow for
radiational cooling to be fairly efficient, especially for the
outlying and interior areas. Low temperatures will be in the
low to middle 60s. Interior and outlying areas may cool into the
upper 50s. Additionally, patchy fog may develop in the coolest
areas, mainly after midnight and into the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any patchy fog in the morning quickly burns off with sunrise. Mostly
clear skies are expected in the morning. High temperatures are
expected to be a bit warmer than recent days with temperatures
rising into the middle to upper 80s. A weak disturbance moving
overhead in the upper trough along with the warmer surface
temperatures may allow for the development of isolated to scattered
showers for the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut into
the afternoon. There may be enough instability for there to be an
isolated thunderstorm as well. While these showers and isolated
storms may develop and move south toward the coast, they`re not
expected to maintain themselves for very long with little to no
shear. As a result, kept slight chance PoPs confined to the Lower
Hudson Valley and Connecticut. Not completely out of the question
that a shower or isolated storm impact areas toward the NYC metro or
coast however.

Mostly clear skies once again expected Wednesday night with another
decent chance at radiational cooling, for outlying and interior
areas. Lows are expected to be in the middle to upper 60s, with
cooler spots in the low 60s to possibly upper 50s. Patchy fog may
once again develop for cooler spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper and mid level trough remains over the northeast and into
the Mid Atlantic Thursday as a surface high and upper ridge remain
nearly blocked by this trough. The upper trough and surface high
moves slowly eastward Friday into the weekend. A weak shortwave
rotates into the eastern upper trough Thursday, with a weak surface
trough across the areas. This trough and upper energy may be strong
enough, with some instability and CAPE during the afternoon, for a
few showers and thunderstorms to develop. This trough then slowly
tracks eastward into the western Atlantic Friday and Friday night as
a frontal system slowly approaches from the west. The upper pattern
remains nearly blocked, and the frontal system with its slow
progression may affect the area into the beginning of next week. The
movement of this system may also be impacted by Tropical Storm
Ernesto`s track late in the week and into the upcoming weekend.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecasts on
Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Thursday through Tuesday.
Humidity levels will be increasing Friday night into Sunday, as dew
points rise from the lower and mid 60s to the upper 60s to around
70. Uncomfortable humidity levels will then continue into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A surface trough will linger over the area today. There could
be some sct-bkn mid level clouds at times this afternoon, with
flight cat remaining VFR.

NW flow around 5-10 kt gusting to 15-20 kt during the afternoon.
Winds become light out of the NW this evening then shift around
to the North late tonight and remain northerly through
Wednesday.

A late sea breeze attempts to develop this afternoon along
the immediate coast, and push northward to KLGA this evening.
Seabreezes likely to develop once again on Wednesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence on sea breeze timing at KJFK this afternoon. A
light SE-S sea breeze may make it to KLGA this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday through Friday: VFR.

Saturday through Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.

High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light
wind regime overall through Friday with sub-SCA levels. The
combination of an approaching frontal system Friday night into
the weekend along with building long period southeast swells
from Tropical Storm Ernesto will allow for ocean seas to build
rapidly to SCA levels, going from 2 ft late Friday afternoon to
5-6 ft by daybreak Saturday. Please refer to the NHC for
official forecasts of Tropical Storm Ernesto.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.
It is too early to know what, if any, impacts may arise from an
approaching frontal system this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches through
Wednesday. A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all the
beaches Thursday, especially late in the day, as long period
southeast swells build.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...20
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...