222
FXUS61 KOKX 140232
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak surface high pressure remains in place through the middle of
the week with subtle disturbances passing by. A weak surface
trough moves through the region Wednesday and Thursday, otherwise
high pressure dominates, moving offshore Friday night. A
frontal system will slowly approach from the west Friday night
through Sunday. The system`s cold front moves through Monday
into Monday night. A trough remains Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The area remains under an upper level trough with weak
disturbances rotating through the middle of the week. At the
surface, weak high pressure largely remains in control with
mostly dry conditions with seasonable temperatures.

Clear skies and relatively light to calm winds tonight should
allow for radiational cooling to be fairly efficient, especially
for the outlying and interior areas. Low temperatures will be
in the low to middle 60s. Interior and outlying areas may cool
into the upper 50s. Additionally, shallow patchy fog may
develop in the coolest areas, mainly after midnight and into the
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Any shallow patchy fog in the morning quickly burns off with
sunrise. Mostly clear skies are expected in the morning. High
temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer than recent days
with temperatures rising into the middle to upper 80s. A weak
disturbance moving overhead in the upper trough along with the
warmer surface temperatures may allow for the development of
isolated to scattered showers for the Lower Hudson Valley and
Southern Connecticut into the afternoon. There may be enough
instability for there to be an isolated thunderstorm as well.
While these showers and isolated storms may develop and move
south toward the coast, they`re not expected to maintain
themselves for very long with little to no shear. As a result,
kept slight chance PoPs confined to the Lower Hudson Valley and
Connecticut. Not completely out of the question that a shower or
isolated storm impact areas toward the NYC metro or coast
however.

Mostly clear skies once again expected Wednesday night with another
decent chance at radiational cooling, for outlying and interior
areas. Lows are expected to be in the middle to upper 60s, with
cooler spots in the low 60s to possibly upper 50s. Patchy fog may
once again develop for cooler spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper and mid level trough remains over the northeast and into
the Mid Atlantic Thursday as a surface high and upper ridge remain
nearly blocked by this trough. The upper trough and surface high
moves slowly eastward Friday into the weekend. A weak shortwave
rotates into the eastern upper trough Thursday, with a weak surface
trough across the areas. This trough and upper energy may be strong
enough, with some instability and CAPE during the afternoon, for a
few showers and thunderstorms to develop. This trough then slowly
tracks eastward into the western Atlantic Friday and Friday night as
a frontal system slowly approaches from the west. The upper pattern
remains nearly blocked, and the frontal system with its slow
progression may affect the area into the beginning of next week. The
movement of this system may also be impacted by Tropical Storm
Ernesto`s track late in the week and into the upcoming weekend.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for forecasts on
Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals Thursday through Tuesday.
Humidity levels will be increasing Friday night into Sunday, as dew
points rise from the lower and mid 60s to the upper 60s to around
70. Uncomfortable humidity levels will then continue into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak high pressure will generally remain in control through the
TAF period, with a surface trough moving through on Wednesday.


VFR.

Winds become light and variable tonight or around 5 knots out of
the northwest. A late day sea breeze is keeping KJFK at a
southwesterly flow, which should slowly become westerly then
northwesterly by 04z. Northwest flow stays light on Wednesday
with potential for sea breezes again.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon, but given low confidence in coverage and occurrence
have left out of the TAF for now.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

SHRA may be added to the TAF for Wednesday afternoon if
confidence increases.

Low confidence in wind direction at KJFK Wednesday afternoon
with the potential for a sea breeze.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers which could bring
brief MVFR conditions.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday through Sunday: Chance of showers/thunderstorms with
MVFR conditions possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.

High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light
wind regime overall through Friday with sub-SCA levels. The
combination of an approaching frontal system Friday night into
the weekend along with building long period southeast swells
from Tropical Storm Ernesto will allow for ocean seas to build
rapidly to SCA levels, going from 2 ft late Friday afternoon to
5-6 ft by daybreak Saturday. Please refer to the NHC for
official forecasts of Tropical Storm Ernesto.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of the week.
It is too early to know what, if any, impacts may arise from an
approaching frontal system this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches through
Wednesday. A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all the
beaches Thursday, especially late in the day, as long period
southeast swells build.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/JT/MW
SHORT TERM...JT/MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...