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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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943 FXUS61 KOKX 141957 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 357 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in place through Thursday night, with a weak disturbance moving through during the day Thursday. High pressure remains off the northeast and Mid Atlantic coast Friday and Friday night as a frontal system slowly approaches from the west. The frontal system continues to approach through the weekend with its associated cold front moving through on Monday. A weak trough lingers on Tuesday. High pressure builds in on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Any showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish quickly after sunset as the loss of diurnal heating will help stabilize the atmosphere. Clouds will also quickly diminish, becoming mostly clear within a couple of hours after sunset. Otherwise, upper level low remains nearly stationary over the Canadian Maritimes tonight, with it`s trough axis off shore while weakening upper level ridge moves east from the Great Lakes region. Low tonight will be near normal, with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s across the normally colder outlying areas, to the upper 60s into the NYC metro area. Temperatures may be colder than forecast in the outlying areas with decent conditions for radiational cooling. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The upper level low will continue to spin over the Canadian Maritimes Thursday into Thursday night. A surface trough moving through may provide enough lift along with the instability aloft (cold pool associated with the upper low) to bring another round of showers and thunderstorms during the late morning into the afternoon as diurnal heating helps to destabilize the atmosphere. Target area seems to be southeastern CT and the Twin Forks of Long Island, as they will be closer to the low, but anywhere across the forecast area may see a shower or thunderstorm. Showers and thunderstorms will once again quickly diminish as the sun sets and the loss of heating stabilizes the atmosphere. Otherwise, temperatures will trend a bit above normal on Thursday, with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the 60s and 70. Outlying areas will once again be cooler with clouds diminishing right after sunset and winds continuing to be light and variable overnight with lack of a pressure gradient. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term period forecast remains fairly consistent from the previous forecast as a trough remains over the western north Atlantic Friday and slowly moves east Friday night into Saturday. This will allow a slow moving frontal system to slowly approach Friday night through Sunday and move into the region Monday. The slow motion of the low is due to an amplifying upper ridge to the east and the interaction and passage of Hurricane Ernesto well to the east. Please refer to the NHC for official forecasts on Ernesto. The upper trough will remain over the region Monday and Tuesday, and weaken Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures have trended upward a couple of degrees for Friday, especially across the interior, however, dew points remain in the lower 60s, so heat indices will be near the air temperatures. Humidity increases Friday night and through the weekend with temperatures near or slightly below normal as rain and clouds will be across the region. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR with a surface trough moving through today. Mainly N flow close to 10 kt expected. There may be occasional gusts over 15 kt this afternoon/early evening. Outflow from some SHRA over eastern Connecticut may eventually make it into the NYC terminals and create a brief NE flow. Sea breezes possible late this afternoon for coastal terminals, but outflow from SHRA from the north may prevent sea breeze influence altogether. A light N flow should resume for tonight and into Thursday morning. Sea breezes once again possible Thursday afternoon. A few SHRA and TS approaching from the north will be in the vicinity of KBDR, KHPN into the afternoon. Additional isolated afternoon/evening showers and possibly a tstm are expected. These could bring brief MVFR vsby, locally gusty winds, and wind shifts. Outflow from any of these could make it to some of the NYC metros later in the evening and keep a stronger N flow going into the evening, but this is too uncertain to include in TAF. Additional isolated to scattered SHRA or TSRA possible Thursday afternoon but confidence too low to include in the TAFs at this time. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Sea breeze may not make it into KJFK this evening. OUTLOOK FOR 20Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday: Slight chance of an afternoon/early evening shower and possibly a tstm with brief MVFR cond and gusty winds, otherwise VFR. Friday: VFR. Saturday and Sunday: Showers likely with chance of tstms, especially in the afternoon/early evening, and especially from the NYC metros north and west. MVFR or lower cond possible. Monday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light wind regime overall through Friday with sub-SCA levels. Winds and seas remain below SCA levels Friday. However, the combination of southerly winds with an approaching frontal system and increasing long period S to SE swells from Hurricane Ernesto during Friday into Saturday will build ocean seas to 5 to 6 feet Saturday, and 6 to 7 feet Sunday. Seas peak Sunday and subside Monday into Monday night. A small craft advisory will likely be needed on the ocean waters for Friday night through Monday night. Please refer to the NHC for official forecasts of Hurricane Ernesto. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through Friday. There is a chance of moderate to heavy rainfall Saturday night into Sunday with a slow moving frontal system. Possible impacts will be poor drainage and urban flooding. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches through early this evening. The rip current risk will be increasing during Thursday to moderate, and continue to increase into Friday, reaching a high risk Friday afternoon. The increasing rip current risk is due to increasing incoming SE to S long period swells from Hurricane Ernesto. Please refer to NHC for official forecasts regarding Hurricane Ernesto. Minor coastal flooding may become possible early next week from Sunday through Tuesday as swells build and as astronomical tides increase due to the full moon on Monday the 19th. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MET NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...MW MARINE...JP/MET HYDROLOGY...JP/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...