391
FXUS61 KOKX 141148
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
748 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will shift through today, otherwise
high pressure will be in place through Friday. A frontal system
will slowly approach from the west this weekend. Its associated
cold front will move through on Monday, with a weak trough
lingering on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper trough axis will be to east today, but we`ll be under the
influence of cyclonic flow aloft around an upper low over
Atlantic Canada. A surface trough shifts through with just
enough moisture for an isolated shower or thunderstorm during
the afternoon and early evening.

Skies will be hazy due to Canadian wildfire smoke advecting
southward around the upper low. Most of this is aloft, but there
is a touch in the boundary layer evidenced by webcams.

High temps today will be in the mid 80s, with a northerly flow
promoting dewpoints 55-60 outside of sea breezes. Low temps
will be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the same for Thursday with a weaker, but still cyclonic
flow aloft. Models hinting at weak surface troughing in the
afternoon. This trough along with stronger shortwave lift aloft
will probably be focused more over the eastern zones compared to
today. So overall better chances of showers and thunderstorms
will be over SE CT, but still generally low chances overall.
Highs in the middle and upper 80s.

Finally some ridging aloft arrives for Friday, so expecting dry
weather with the deep-layered ridging. Highs in the middle and
upper 80s again, but with muggier conditions. A warm front
associated with low pressure moving through the Great Lakes
approaches Friday night. Overrunning moisture ahead of the front
brings us a chance of showers mainly late at night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving upper trough will influence the weather during
most of this period, bringing showers/tstms from Sat through
Mon especially to areas from NYC north/west where likely PoP has
been forecast. Its slow forward motion is due to an amplifying
upper ridge to the east and also the passage of what should then
be Hurricane Ernesto well to the east. Once the hurricane
passes, heights aloft should begin to rise, but the upper trough
will likely still be to the west even into Tue, so chance PoP
continues for that day as well.

Temps will be near to slightly below normal this weekend, then
rebound to a little above normal for Mon/Tue. Dewpoints near or
above 70 expected for Sunday and Monday. making both of these
days muggy as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR with a surface trough moving through today.

Mainly N flow close to 10 kt expected. KEWR could see some gusts
over 15 kt this afternoon. Winds could veer more to the NNE for
a time late this afternoon.

Sea breezes expected early this afternoon at KGON, and late
today (22Z-23Z) at KJFK/KISP. After these die down, a light N
flow should resume for tonight.

Isolated late afternoon/evening showers and possibly a tstm are
expected mainly inland. These could bring MVFR vsby and brief
gusty winds to KSWF. Outflow from any of these could make it to
some of the NYC metros later in the evening and keep a stronger
N flow going into the evening, but this is too uncertain to
include in TAF.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Sea breeze this afternoon at KJFK could start 1-2 hours earlier
than fcst.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Slight chance of an afternoon/early evening shower and
possibly a tstm with brief MVFR cond and gusty winds, otherwise
VFR.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Showers likely with chance of tstms,
especially in the afternoon/early evening, and especially from
the NYC metros north and west. MVFR or lower cond possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure provides a weak pressure gradient and a light
wind regime overall through Friday with sub-SCA levels. The
combination of an approaching frontal system Friday night into
the weekend along with building long period swells from Ernesto,
will then allow for ocean seas to build rapidly to hazardous
levels. Seas should go from 2 ft Fri morning to 5 ft by late Fri
night, and continue to build into the weekend, peaking at up to
9 ft by Sunday night. Please refer to the NHC for official
forecasts of Ernesto.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Friday. It is too
early to know what, if any, impacts may arise from an
approaching frontal system this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches today.
A low rip current risk likely continues through Thursday, but
there is a chance that the risk increases to moderate late in
the day as long period southeast swells start to build.

Minor coastal flooding may become possible early next week from
Sunday-Tue as swells build and as astronomical tides increase
due to the full moon on Mon the 19th.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC/BG