400
FXUS61 KOKX 160235
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1035 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure remains in place through Friday night. A
frontal system approaches the region from the Great Lakes this
weekend with its central low eventually moving across early
Monday. The low may linger nearby thereafter through early
Tuesday before high pressure moves in for mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Forecast on track this evening with no significant changes to
the forecast. Any left over showers quickly come to an end over
the next hour. Otherwise, weak surface high pressure continues
to remain in place through the night with skies becoming clear
to mostly clear and winds becoming light and variable late
tonight. Some radiational cooling may take place in the outlying
and interior areas with lows possibly dropping into the low
60s. Most other areas will see lows in the upper 60s to near 70
in the NYC metro. Cooler spots may allow for the development of
patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging moves overhead into Friday allowing for mostly
dry conditions during the day. Mostly sunny skies during the morning
and early afternoon will become at least partly cloudy by evening
with the approach of the next frontal system to the west. Winds will
be light and variable with high pressure sliding offshore,
eventually becoming primarily south by the afternoon and evening.
This will allow a subtle advection of moisture back into the region
along with continued increased cloud cover. High temperatures on
Friday will be in the middle to upper 80s for much of the area. Some
spots near the NYC metro may rise into the low 90s.

The increase in moisture and cloud cover by Friday evening will
prevent low temperatures from dropping much Friday night. Lows will
be in the middle 60s to near 70 for much of the area. As the frontal
system approaches from the west overnight, some scattered light
showers may approach the western portions of the area by morning on
Saturday, but these look to be widely scattered and confined to the
extreme western CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A strong upper level trough approaches the region this weekend. The
associated upper level axis is forecast to be just west of the
region Monday with an eventual progression of this axis to move
across the local region early Tuesday. The trough pattern lingers
near the region going through the middle of next week but forecasts
exhibit consistent weakening with rising mid level heights.

At the surface, a frontal system approaches. The warm front
approaches Saturday into Saturday night. It slowly moves across
Sunday into Sunday night. The associated central low moves in
along with the cold front by early Monday. The low and front may
linger nearby Monday into Monday night. High pressure builds in
from the north and west thereafter Tuesday through Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast, higher
probabilities Saturday night through Monday. Drier trends Tuesday
into Thursday next week as high pressure returns.

Temperatures are forecast to not deviate too much from normal for
much of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure generally remains in control through the TAF
period.

VFR forecast.

Winds become light and variable tonight as high pressure moves
overhead. Flow becomes southerly Friday afternoon as the high shifts
offshore. Speeds remain at or under 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of southerly winds Friday late morning/early afternoon may be
off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Saturday THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Showers likely with chance of tstms, especially in the
afternoon/early evening, and especially from the NYC metros north
and west. MVFR or lower conditions possible.

Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower in SHRA/TSRA.

Tuesday: Becoming VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any SHRA/TSRA
in the afternoon....mainly eastern terminals

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure over the area is allowing for a weak pressure
gradient and light flow. This is allowing for sub-SCA conditions on
all waters through Friday. Waves begin to increase Friday night and
into the weekend with energy from distant Hurricane Ernesto reaching
the coast. Waves will largely be 5-7 feet Friday night through the
weekend. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all the ocean
zones beginning Friday evening.

SCA conditions likely for the ocean this weekend through early next
week. The ocean could potentially return to below SCA conditions
Tuesday night. The SCA potential will be due to mainly elevated seas
as they build in response to Tropical Cyclone Ernesto passing well
offshore in the Atlantic and the associated long period swells
incoming. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center
regarding the latest details and track regarding Ernesto.

Winds are forecast to stay below SCA thresholds this weekend through
Tuesday night of next week. Non-ocean waters are also forecast to
remain below SCA thresholds during this timeframe.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No further impacts expected with the isolated to scattered
shower/thunderstorm activity into this evening.

There will be potential for heavy rain especially with
thunderstorms this weekend and into Monday of next week. The
higher likelihood of rain starts Saturday night and continues
through the rest of the weekend. Total amounts of rain during
this timeframe are forecast to be up to near a quarter to half
inch for much of the area. There will likely be locally higher
amounts. This will be tied with the frontal system moving into
the area. There will be a chance for minor flooding in poor
drainage, urban, and low lying areas for the entire forecast
region. There is a marginal risk for much of the area for flash
flooding. The probabilities and associated confidence are too
low at the moment to specify specific spatial areas or time
windows for higher chances of flooding. The atmosphere seems
more primed for flooding with showers and thunderstorms just
ahead of the trough Sunday into Monday, when precipitable waters
reach near 1.75 to almost 2 inches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk increases to high for Friday, mainly in the
afternoon into early evening. The rip current risk further
increases thereafter going into this weekend. The high risk of
rip currents likely remains through the upcoming weekend. The
increasing rip current risk is due to increasing incoming SE to
S long period swells from Hurricane Ernesto. Please refer to NHC
for official forecasts regarding Hurricane Ernesto.

Ocean seas are forecast to be highest, up to near 7 feet, Sunday
into Monday. There is potential for high surf along the ocean
beaches during this timeframe as well as beach erosion. In
addition, the high risk of rip currents could also extend into
early next week.

Minor coastal flooding may be possible early next week during
high tide cycles Sunday through Tuesday as swells build and
astronomical tides increase due to the full moon on Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Friday through Saturday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...BC/JM/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...