864
FXUS61 KOKX 251400
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1000 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the central Appalachians builds off
the North Carolina coast today, and drifts east tonight. A warm
front moves through the area tonight into Wednesday morning as
low pressure tracks across southeastern Canada. A cold front
moves into the region late Wednesday and moves across the region
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High pressure builds in
for Thursday night and moves over the region late in the day
Friday. A warm front lifts north of the area Saturday. A series
of cold fronts then moves through on Sunday with high pressure
building in for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track this morning with sunny sky conditions.
Hourly temperatures and dewpoints are in good agreement
comparing observations to forecast values.

Today will be dry as a northern stream weak upper ridge moves
across the northeast, and surface high pressure centered to the
southwest moves off the North Carolina coast. A westerly flow
with warm advection and plenty of sunshine will allow for
temperatures to rise into the lower 90s across northwestern New
Jersey and New York City, with upper 80s to around 90 across
most of the rest of the region. A dry airmass remains today with
dew points in the 50s, with heat indices at or just below air
temperatures.

Tonight into early Wednesday morning the warm front lifts north
of the region and with 850 temperatures remaining around 18C
overnight lows will only fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A deepening upper trough will approach during Wednesday along
with a surface cold front. With the area warm sectored
temperatures Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday`s, except
across the coastal regions as a southwesterly flow will keep
those areas a few degrees cooler. More humid air will also be
moving into the region as dew points rise into the mid 60s.
Maximum heat indices will reach 90 to 95 during peak heating.
With heat indices remaining below 100, a heat advisory is not
expected to the issued at this time.

Showers and thunderstorms develop late day Wednesday, and will
be more likely Wednesday night as a cold front moves into the
region. A few of the storms may become strong with gusty winds,
and a portion of the region, the lower Hudson Valley into
northeastern New Jersey, and New York City have been placed
into a slight risk for severe weather with damaging winds the
primary threat, with a risk of hail, and an isolated tornado.
Also, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.75 to 2.0
inches, and training of storms, the will be a chance of locally
heavy rainfall the the possibility of urban and poor drainage
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level trough over the Northeast Thursday night pushes
offshore on Friday, allowing for a zonal flow aloft. At the
surface, high pressure builds in as a cold front that pushed
through earlier continues to move east. The high pushes off the
New England Coast late in the day Friday into Friday night,
allowing a warm front to lift north of the area Saturday. An
unsettled pattern sets up Saturday night and Sunday as a series
of cold fronts/surface troughs moves through. Some timing
differences with the models this far out, but for the most part,
they are generally 3 to 6 hours apart in the passage of the
main cold front late in the day Sunday into late Sunday night.
High pressure then builds in for Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be associated with these cold frontal and
surface trough passages with lifted indices below zero, but for
now, limited it to a slight chance for thunder with uncertainty
in how unstable the atmosphere will actually be.

Outside of Sunday, when the area will be warm sectored,
temperatures will be seasonable. A bit of a roller coaster ride
in regards to humidity however as they are expected to be low on
Friday with high pressure building in and a northerly flow
bringing in a less humid air mass. The quick return flow Friday
night and the approach and passage of a warm front into Saturday
will mean humidity levels on the rise, with humid conditions
Saturday and more so into Sunday. They then come down again
after the passage of the cold fronts Sunday, with comfortable
levels for most by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds pushes south of the area tonight. A warm
front lifts north of the area tonight as a cold front approaches
Wednesday night.

VFR.

NW winds winds will shift to the west and then SW at most
terminals late in the day. Winds speeds should be 10 to 15 kt at
the metro terminals, and around 10 kt at all other terminals.
Gusts are possible during the afternoon hours, but most likely
at KJFK and KISP at 20 to 25 kt. All other terminals may see
occasional gusts of 20 to 25 kt.


Sea breeze development is expected at KJFK, KISP, KBDR, and
KGON. There is a bit more certainty with the sea breeze making
its way to KLGA, and converted TEMPO group to prevailing.
However, it`s possible that the sea breeze remains south or east
of KLGA today.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Sea breeze may remain south or east of KLGA today.

Timing of winds shifting to the southwest may be off by an hour
or two on today.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the late afternoon, and likely at night, with MVFR or lower
possible. SW wind 15-20 kt G20-25 kt near the coast.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, MVFR or lower possible early in the
morning in shower and thunderstorms.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory, SCA, in effect for the ocean zones south
of Long Island tonight through Wednesday. Wanted to see how new
model guidance trends so did not extend SCA into Wednesday
night at this time. However, SCA conditions are quite probable
for the ocean Wednesday night.

With high pressure building to the south winds will be
diminishing through today and becoming west, then southwest.
Once ocean seas subside, winds and seas will remain below
advisory levels across the forecast waters today. The
southwesterly flow increases this evening and tonight as a warm
front moves through the waters, and SCA conditions develop on
the ocean waters. SCA conditions continue on the ocean
Wednesday and into Wednesday night as a strong southwest flow
continues ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds shift to the
northwest late Wednesday night into Thursday behind the cold
front and winds and seas will diminish below SCA levels Thursday
morning.

Winds and waves generally remain below SCA criteria from Thursday
night through Saturday night. However, there is the potential for
SCA winds on Saturday as the pressure gradient increases across the
waters. Waves build on the ocean, but shouldn`t reach 5 ft until
around daybreak Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms developing late Wednesday afternoon and evening,
ahead of an approaching cold front, may produce locally heavy
rainfall that could produce minor flooding, particularly in
urban and poor drainage areas. Any risk of flash flooding will
likely be localized at this time.

No hydrologic concerns from Thursday night through the
beginning of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk at all local Atlantic facing
beaches today. A high rip current risk is also expected for
Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...IRD/JP
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...