556
FXUS61 KOKX 170546
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will remain in place through the overnight. A
cold front approaching from the west on Wednesday will move
through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The exiting
cold front looks to slow down and linger offshore as high
pressure slowly builds in. The high will remain in control
through the weekend, with a weak cold frontal passage possible
late Sunday into Monday. A warm front will move through on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Any convection has now long since ended as showers remain south
of Long Island and off the Central and Southern NJ coast. Another
very warm and muggy night with low temps near 80 in NYC, and in
the mid/upper 70s most elsewhere. There may be some hints of
patchy fog in a few of the more rural locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
One more afternoon of hazardous heat and humidity expected
across much of the region Wednesday before a respite. Digging
trough will push a cold front toward the region, instigating
convection once again in the afternoon and evening. Ahead of it,
temperatures climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s, and heat
indices likely top out between 95 and 100, and a little higher
than that in the urban corridor of NE NJ.

Showers and thunderstorms become likely by mid to late
afternoon for western areas, spreading east and persisting thru
the evening, before cold fropa late at night into Thu morning.
SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe tstms for the LoHud
Valley, NE NJ, NYC, and western Long Island, with a marginal
risk farther east. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard,
though torrential downpours with this activity could lead to
flooding. CAM`s continue to show good potential for widespread
1+ inch rainfall amts and locally 2-3 inches, with the 12Z HREF
still showing a 10% chance of 3 inches in 3 hr across SW CT late
day Wed, and SW of NYC Wed evening. The showers and storms
likely linger overnight, gradually ending from west to east
working into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* A cold front will continue working offshore on Thursday. A few
  showers, possibly a thunderstorm may linger nearby in the morning
  with dry conditions becoming likely in the afternoon and evening.

* Daytime temperatures will return to seasonable levels Thursday and
  Friday, with dew points falling into the lower 60s to upper 50s.

* A slight moderating temperature trend is possible for the upcoming
  weekend, but highs will still be in the middle to upper 80s with
  dew points in the 60s.

* Mainly dry conditions should persist through the upcoming weekend,
  with unsettled weather returning early next week.

By Thursday morning the cold front should already be moving through
the area, but will slow down and may not push offshore until mid-
morning. This will allow for a lingering chance of showers Thursday
morning. Once offshore, the front likely stalls through the weekend.
High pressure slowly builds in behind the departing cold front and
will bring in a drier airmass with more seasonable temperatures to
end the week. High pressure will remain in control through the
weekend.

Late Sunday into Monday an approaching weakening cold front may pass
through the area, but will likely not result in anything other than
an isolated shower. At the same time, the aforementioned front
stalled offshore will start to make it`s way back north. This front
will return unsettled weather to the area with chances of
showers/thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the west Wednesday afternoon.

Mainly dry conditions tonight and into Wednesday morning with
VFR conditions expected. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon, this time with a
better chance of impacting the NYC terminals with the approach
of a cold front. Feel confidence is high enough to include
TEMPOs at this time. Expect MVFR or lower possible in any
storms, along with a threat of gusty winds and heavy rainfall
during any storms. While most of the shower/thunderstorm
activity ends after 02z, there will still be a chance of showers
later at night.

S-SW winds are expected to diminish tonight at most terminals,
falling below to 10kt or less. One exception may be JFK, which
could remain slightly above 10kt much of the night. Winds
increase once again Wednesday afternoon to 10-15kt with
occasional gusts into the 20-25kt range during the afternoon.
Winds diminish again Wednesday night to 10kt or less, and start
to turn a bit more towards the west especially late in the TAF
period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of convection Wednesday afternoon may be +/- an hour or
so. Potential that winds gust 40-50 kt in stronger thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: MVFR or lower in possible showers.

Thursday: Chance of showers east of the NYC terminals in the
morning with MVFR possible, otherwise VFR.

Friday through Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the central and eastern ocean waters.
Ocean seas are already at 4 ft, and with synoptic scale flow
increasing to near 20 kt seas of 5-6 ft further east overnight
into Wed morning.

Advisory conditions are again further west on the ocean waters
late today with another surge of SW wind sustained up to 20 kt
and 5-6 ft seas ahead of an approaching cold front. These
elevated seas should linger into daytime Thu. With high pressure
settling across the waters sub small craft conditions will
prevail as ocean seas gradually lower Thu night into Fri. Sub
small craft conditions should persist throughout the weekend as
well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With a humid air mass in place, any thunderstorms that develop
through Wed night will have the potential to produce downpours
capable of causing at least minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Thursday through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
S-SW flow peaking at 15-20 kt late day Wednesday and seas 5-6 ft
support a high rip current risk. The high risk will continue
into Thursday with seas remaining elevated.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high minimum temperatures for the next couple of
days:

 ...WED JUL 17...

Newark:        80/1968
Bridgeport:    77/1968
Central Park:  82/1870
LaGuardia:     79/1999
Kennedy:       79/2013*
Islip:         75/2021*

* = also in previous years

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>011.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>080-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-178-
     179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NYZ081.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002.
     Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/BG/DBR/JT
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...