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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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013 FXUS64 KOHX 061618 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1118 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday night) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Some high clouds continue to stream into the area at forecast time, especially over the western half. Those east of I-65 are just now starting to reach convective temperatures, which means cu fields are starting to develop. PoPs this afternoon remain at 10% or less and with the inversion at 800 mb on this morning`s OHX sounding there`s no reason to increase them, even for an extremely isolated pinhead shower or two that might develop east of I-65 today. Temperatures might be running a touch ahead of the overnight forecast, but with slightly lower dew points filtering in from the north, feels-like temps should remain below triple digits. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow with 10% or less PoPs and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Things start to change on Monday, however. Southerly boundary layer flow kicks in and icky dew points return. That means low triple digit Heat Index values will return to the mid-state. In addition, rain chances start creeping back into the forecast. With the Bermuda high back over the Atlantic, a trough approaching from the northwest and Beryl making landfall in TX Monday morning, rain chances will increase precipitously (see what I did there?) Monday night, Tuesday and right into the day on Wednesday. Current WPC guidance runs 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across the mid-state. For now, this is acceptable as ensembles show less than 10% chance of more than that, but we will need to watch this closely over the next couple of days as we figure out the path of Beryl`s remnants. After Wednesday, rain chances don`t disappear from the forecast as Middle TN remains in kind of a convergence zone between a trough to our north and the ridge to our east. This should keep a minimum 30 to 50% PoP in the forecast through the remainder of next week. With the general troughiness, though, that means we should hover near more normal temperatures for this time of the year. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Patchy fog over the eastern terminals will lift over the next 1-2 hours and then we will see VFR conditions through the TAF period. SCT mid and high level clouds today. Light northerly winds under 7 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 93 70 95 73 / 10 0 0 10 Clarksville 90 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 10 Crossville 88 62 90 68 / 10 0 10 20 Columbia 93 67 94 70 / 10 0 10 20 Cookeville 87 65 89 70 / 10 0 10 20 Jamestown 87 64 89 68 / 10 0 10 20 Lawrenceburg 92 66 93 70 / 10 0 10 20 Murfreesboro 94 67 95 71 / 10 0 0 20 Waverly 90 67 92 70 / 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Mueller