239
FXUS64 KOHX 060134
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
834 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A quiet night looks to be ahead with dry conditions and mild
overnight temps. Low-level moisture overnight suggests fog is
likely to develop, especially along and near the Cumberland
Plateau. Any fog will diminish after sunrise, leading to a
beautiful weekend with dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
Temperatures will be "cooler" in the upper-80s to low-90s, but
dewpoints will be lower, leading to more tolerable afternoon
humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has exited Middle TN
at forecast time. A few of them became strong with a 40 mph wind
gust or two and lots of lightning, but for the most part, they
behaved themselves. A few showers remain in their wake and while
that`ll be the bulk of today`s activity for most, areas east of
I-65 aren`t quite out of the woods. CAMs have been suggesting
additional convective development this afternoon. Even with many
seeing storms already today, models have wanted to increase both
instability and shear values across the eastern half from about 1
pm until 6 pm. However, with additional cloud cover, this is
looking less likely for most of the area. Will focus some likely
PoPs on the far eastern part of the Cumberland Plateau, but there
is a chance that most afternoon development happens in East TN. If
we do get storms, with the addition of about 40 kts of bulk
shear, damaging gusty winds will be possible. Again, this is
looking less likely, but if you`re on the Cumberland Plateau and
have outdoor plans, keep an eye to the sky until about 6 pm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The weekend looks pretty good. The energy associated with today`s
storms will get south of us tonight and set up dry conditions
Saturday through most of Monday. Temperatures will warm a degree or
two each day with Monday being the warmest day of this forecast
package. Should stay below Head Advisory criteria, however. That
doesn`t mean it won`t be humid. The weekend should enjoy a little
break from the humidity, but 70+ dew points return on Monday.
(Insert little pukey face here).

By Monday night, as that heat and humidity has built back into the
area, showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast. A
couple of things will be going on. First, with the Bermuda high
slipping back over the Atlantic and a upper trough digging into
the region, this in and of itself would increase rain chances
across the area. It`s the second part that may very well be the
driver of a lot of rain across the mid-state: the remnants of
Beryl. Hurricane Beryl is expected to make landfall near the
Texas/Mexico border Monday evening. Models aren`t in complete
agreement how much it will affect Middle TN, but there`s at least
some agreement we`ll get rain from it mid-week. Obviously, there`s
much to be worked out as far as the details, but this becomes a
good news-bad news scenario: yes, it`ll be cooler (upper 80s to 90
degrees), but it looks pretty wet. Hey, now that I think about
it, maybe it`s a good news-good news scenario. The gardens will be
happy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Diurnal driven VFR 4-5 Kft ceilings CSV should dissipate by
06/02Z. Per best low level moisture polling, some MVFR/IFR fog
induced vsbys potential SRB/CSV 06/08Z-06/13Z. Some passing high
level cloudiness at times in a prevailing southwesterly flow
pattern aloft. Prevailing surface winds generally NW & light per
surface ridging pattern influences.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  91  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    67  87  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     65  86  63  88 /  20  10  10  20
Columbia       68  91  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     67  85  65  88 /  10  10   0  10
Jamestown      65  84  63  87 /  20  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   68  90  66  92 /  10   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   69  92  67  93 /  10   0   0  10
Waverly        66  88  67  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....JB Wright