766
FXUS64 KOHX 041731
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Happy 4th of July, Middle Tennessee! A heat advisory remains in
effect through 7pm tonight, so if outdoors today, it is
encouraged to stay hydrated with water, wear light clothing, and
take frequent breaks. Outside of the heat, the Independence day
forecast for storms looks to have improved over the last 24 hours.
We`ve been monitoring a complex of thunderstorms associated with
a shortwave trough across western Kentucky this morning. Those
storms will stay north of Tennessee, however, any outflow
boundaries that may push out from those storms will serve as a
trigger mechanism for scattered thunderstorms to fire along.
Models continue to show ample CAPE across the area this afternoon
with values reaching near 2000 J/kg. This is no surprise with how
hot it is and how warm our dew points temperatures are. The other
parameters of interest are shear and mid-level lapse rates, which
both appear to stay on the lower side today, meaning severe
thunderstorm potential will be limited. So what it comes down to
is we`ll be watching for thunderstorms to pop-up along any
boundaries hanging over the area this afternoon. Any storms that
do develop will have the potential to dump very heavy rain with
PWAT values nearing 2" this afternoon, produce gusty winds and
frequent lightning. As we move into the evening hours,
thunderstorm chances greatly diminish as instability values tank
with loss of daytime heating and any lingering boundaries move out
of the area.

A cold front will push through Friday in response to a deep upper-
level low kicking out that aforementioned shortwave. Rain and
thunderstorm chances will fire back up overnight tonight into the
early morning hours Friday and will become more widespread
across the area as the day progresses. Models aren`t showing much
in the way of severe potential, but an isolated strong storm or
two is possible late morning. The biggest thing with this front is
that it will provide us with a much needed break from the heat.
Increased cloud cover and rain will push temperatures down into
the upper 80s tomorrow with drier air filtering in after frontal
passage Friday evening. Drier air = lower relative humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

We will be on the back side of the trough come Saturday and this
will continue to usher in sinking, cooler air. It will no doubt
still be warm with highs both Saturday and Sunday in the upper
80s for most and low 90s for some, but with the drier air being
present, the feel-like temperature will be much closer to the
actual temperature as dew point temperatures drop back into the
low 60s. As we move into the second week of July, winds will turn
back out of the south Monday due to a trough building in from an
upper-level low over the Midwest. This will bring moisture back
into the area as well as rain and thunderstorm chances. These
chances will stay in the forecast each day next week and will
generally be on the low-to-medium (30-50%) side each day. Models
show our mid-level winds turning westerly during the week and this
will aid in streaming in disturbances throughout the week. As of
now, nothing alarming in terms of severe potential in the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Scattered storms could impact the terminals this afternoon. VCTS
was used during the best time frame. A tempo group was included at
CKV/BNA/MQY where chances are slightly higher. Visibilities could
be reduced to IFR if a terminal is impacted by a storm. Storm
coverage will decrease this evening. Some models bring a line of
showers and storms into Middle Tennessee from west to east close
to dawn into Friday morning. Confidence in this solution is not
high so VCSH was only included at this point. Winds will be out of
the SW/SSW this afternoon between 5-10 kts. Winds will decrease
below 5 kts this evening. Winds will shift to the W Friday
morning and increase to 5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      77  91  70  90 /  60  90  30   0
Clarksville    75  88  67  87 /  70  60  10   0
Crossville     71  86  65  85 /  40  90  50  10
Columbia       75  91  67  90 /  40  90  30   0
Cookeville     73  85  67  84 /  50  90  50  10
Jamestown      72  84  65  83 /  50  90  50  10
Lawrenceburg   75  90  67  89 /  30  90  40  10
Murfreesboro   76  92  68  90 /  50  90  50   0
Waverly        73  88  67  88 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-
Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Reagan