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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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705 FXUS64 KOHX 192329 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 629 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Very pleasant start to the day today with lower temperatures and much more comfortable humidity levels. Relative humidity values across Middle Tennessee this morning are near 60% with temperatures just now getting into the mid to upper 70s. Showers have lingered around our south this morning, but QPE amounts aren`t amounting to much with so much dry air aloft. A shortwave trough is moving through the area today that will aid in lifting the boundary currently over Alabama north. CAMs have struggled capturing the northern extent of the moisture associated with the boundary, thus have bumped PoP values up slightly for the near term. For the remainder of today, shower and any thunderstorm chances should largely be confined to the southern half of the area as well as along the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures today and tonight will be much closer to typical July readings with an afternoon high of 87 at Nashville and lows in the upper 60s. Look for rain to become more widespread Saturday as the aforementioned boundary continues to move north through the area. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The long term forecast features a wetter pattern with slightly below average temperatures. Hopefully some drought relief will be found over the next week. Our upper air pattern keeps troughing over the majority of the Ohio Valley accompanied by southwesterly flow. The southerly component will help bring more moisture back into the area while the westerly component will help stream in a series of disturbances through the week. No one day really stands out for severe weather potential. Overall, shear and lapse rates will be poor and not conducive for a widespread severe threat. Tuesday is the only day that looks to have a bit better forcing as global models are showing a cold front pushing through the area. Model soundings do not look alarming, though. With all of this being said, rain chances are in the forecast each day with forecast rainfall totals between 1 to 2.5 inches for the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 An inverted surface trough bisecting Middle Tennessee coupled with an upper trough to our immediate west are producing a somewhat unsettled weather pattern across Middle Tennessee this evening. Earlier convection has mostly dissipated, but more active weather is expected tomorrow. Overnight, look for VFR wx except along the Cumberland Plateau, where some radiation fog and low ceilings are expected to develop during the early morning. Have included afternoon convection for tomorrow at all terminals except CKV. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 89 71 89 / 20 60 30 60 Clarksville 67 86 68 86 / 10 30 20 30 Crossville 64 81 64 82 / 50 70 50 80 Columbia 67 89 69 89 / 20 60 40 60 Cookeville 66 83 66 84 / 40 70 50 70 Jamestown 64 81 65 82 / 30 70 50 70 Lawrenceburg 67 87 68 87 / 30 60 40 70 Murfreesboro 68 89 69 90 / 30 60 50 60 Waverly 67 87 68 87 / 10 30 20 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Rose