067
FXUS64 KOHX 150522
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Not much change in the weather pattern from last night. This will
bring similar conditions tonight to what we saw last night but it
does look like it will be a few degrees warmer and maybe slightly
more humid. We did see widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
again this afternoon, any that are left will diminish over the
next hour or so and we will then see dry conditions overnight.
Overall fog chances will be low but some patchy fog will still be
possible mainly in areas that saw some rain today. Not a whole
lot of change in the pattern for tomorrow, we do look to be a bit
more humid and that may keep highs a degree or two lower. We
should mix out some in the afternoon lowering the dew points a bit,
that should keep us just below heat advisory with heat index
values 100-105. Widely scattered popup storms seem likely again in
the afternoon once again favoring areas from I-40 south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Late morning temperatures are into the lower 90s. The dewpoints have
remained in the upper 60s to near 70, yielding a modest but positive
HI influence. An area of surface high pressure does reside across
northern middle TN and should help to yield a tendency toward
subsidence in the afternoon. 18Z cap strengths to diminish so we
could again see some isolated convection across our south. Pattern
looks similar again for Monday with slightly stronger late afternoon
lift phasing with an increase in moisture across our south. Maybe
some scattered convection late in the day. Tuesday is not looking
that active either. Although, there is a slight uptick of convection
as some upper shortwave amplification is indicated.

For the near term temps, still looking rather hot although latest
NBM numbers have backed down a degree or two. The lower level
trajectory appears to remain land locked just enough to prevent an
upward spike in dewpoints. So for the above reasons, will refrain
from any heat advisory issuance for Monday. As additional data comes
in, however, the advisory may be issued soon. Otherwise, high
temperatures still look like upper 90s to near 100 and max heat
index values close to 105F. Tuesday may include a slight increase in
humidity as lower level wind trajectories become more favorable. HI
values may tick upward a degree or two.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

In the extended forecast, not much has changed as the pattern
becomes increasingly active. A frontal boundary is still expected to
drop slowly southward and give us some likely pops for the midweek
timeframe. Then as we transition into late week and the weekend,
some pronounced troughing will persist across the region with the
axis located along the lower and mid MS valleys. So, rain chances to
persist daily with our overall qpf totals chiming in at around a
1/2 inch west to up to 1 1/2 inches east.

For our extended temps, one more hot day on Wednesday with the front
approaching. At that time we should see highs in the mid 90s.
Following this, a welcomed break from the heat is expected as highs
drop down in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will drop into the upper
60s. This is very close to normal, perhaps a degree or two below.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle. MVFR fog possible at
CSV/SRB for a couple hours near sunrise Monday, but not confident
enough to prevail at this time.

Winds will be light and vrb overnight, light and predominantly
westerly on Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      99  77  99  78 /  20  10  10  30
Clarksville    95  75  96  75 /  10   0  20  50
Crossville     92  68  89  69 /  30  10  10  30
Columbia       98  74  98  75 /  20  10  10  20
Cookeville     92  71  91  72 /  20  10  10  40
Jamestown      92  71  90  71 /  20  10  10  40
Lawrenceburg   95  73  96  73 /  20  10  10  20
Murfreesboro   98  74  98  75 /  20  10  10  30
Waverly        96  74  96  74 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Unger