934
FXUS64 KOHX 201139
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
639 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Much of the area had tolerable, almost pleasant humidity levels
yesterday. Most areas were also rain-free, but there were some
scattered showers south and east of BNA. For today, the frontal
zone that brought the lower humidity and cooler temps will drift
northward across our area. This will mean a return to sticky
conditions and a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms
area-wide. Not everybody will receive rain, but many will.
Generally, the greatest rain chances will be located along the
Plateau and the lower chances will be located along the Tennessee
river. Some short range models are showing a west to east
convergent zone setting up just south of I-40 across the entire
coverage area, but we will have to just wait and see if that
develops into a band of showers and storms. Otherwise, skies will
feature more clouds than sun with high temperatures mostly in the
low to mid 80s.

The pattern for the remainder of the weekend shows weak forcing
with the increasingly diffuse frontal zone sitting over the area.
There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms at times, with
greatest coverage during the warmth of the afternoon and early
evening hours. Any thunderstorms will produce lightning and brief
downpours, but there are no parameters showing significant risk
for severe storms or widespread heavy rain potential.

Some overnight fog will develop late tonight into Sunday morning.
Sunday daytime will be a little more sunny than today with
slightly lower shower coverage, so temps will be a couple of
degrees warmer for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The long term forecast features an unsettled pattern with daily
chances for showers and storms and slightly below average
temperatures. Throughout next week, a trough axis will be
positioned just to our west resulting in moist southwest flow into
TN. Latest models show the most active wx Tuesday and Wednesday
as a couple of shortwave troughs help focus moisture and lift
across the area. These are the days when coverage of rainfall and
localized heavy rainfall potential will be greatest with
precipitable water values climbing over 2 inches. The latest WPC 7
day QPF shows 1 to 2 inches of rain likely area-wide, but some
areas are sure to see more than that in localized downpours,
especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

Models do not show much if any support for severe storms, but
that could change as the more active shortwaves move across the
region. Beyond Wednesday, the pattern remains moist and unsettled
into next weekend, so daily rain chances will remain in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

CKV low confidence in tstm development thru 21/00Z. Best 4 hour
window mentioned for tstm development with low VFR/MVFR ceiling
thresholds and MVFR/IFR vsbys with variable winds and gusts to
25kts. Vicinity shwrs 20/16Z-21/04Z. Generally light S sfc winds
with VFR conditions until 21/03Z. IFR/MVFR vsbys per patchy
fog/MVFR ceilings around/after 21/03Z with vsbys lowering to LIFR
thresholds per areas of fog with LIFR/IFR ceilings MQY/SRB/CSV
and MVFR fog vsbys with VFR stratus deck around 5K CKV/BNA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  72  90  72 /  60  30  40  40
Clarksville    85  68  86  69 /  40  10  30  40
Crossville     79  64  81  64 /  80  40  50  50
Columbia       87  69  88  68 /  70  30  30  30
Cookeville     80  67  83  67 /  80  30  40  40
Jamestown      79  66  82  65 /  80  30  40  40
Lawrenceburg   86  68  87  67 /  70  30  30  40
Murfreesboro   86  70  89  69 /  70  30  40  40
Waverly        86  67  87  68 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright