![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
003 FXUS64 KOHX 151124 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 624 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 There`s a few clouds out there at forecast time, but it`s another quiet morning across Middle TN. A few spots of fog will be possible near bodies of water as we approach sunrise, but patchy at best. I`m running the risk of sounding like a broken record, but the forecast has been pretty consistent over the last several days. Hot and humid conditions will continue for at least two more days, along with small rain chances. Of course, those who do see rain today and tomorrow (mainly south of I-40) will run the risk of gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. The question then becomes, how hot will we get today and tomorrow? We reached 100 at BNA yesterday as dew points at the airport mixed out to 65 degrees (with a lot of other spots in the area remaining in the upper 60s to around 70). If that happens again today and tomorrow, we could very well reach 100 each of the next two days. 99 or 100? It`s still stinkin` hot. As far as Heat Index values, we`ll be close to Heat Advisory criteria (105+ degrees) today and tomorrow. A few spots will probably get there, but low triple digits west of the Cumberland Plateau may be more of the rule than the exception. Dew points are the issue and most spots are mixing out enough to keep those feels-like temperatures below threshold criteria. A little climo for ya: the last time we reached 100 two days in a row (at BNA) was just last year on August 24 and 25. If we get there today and tomorrow, that would be 3 days in a row. The last time we did that, we did it twice in one year: July and August 1990. Of course, the next logical question is what`s the longest streak of 100+ days? The last 8 days of June in 1952 did it. That won`t happen this year because rain is coming Wednesday! && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Yes, widespread rains are expected to move into the region on Wednesday afternoon and this is starting to look like the beginning of a fairly active period of weather for the mid-state. Models continue to show the boundary associated with Wednesday`s activity getting hung up just south of us and leaving increased PoPs in place for Middle TN through next weekend and into the start of next week as multiple waves traverse the boundary. This will be a welcomed change as drought conditions have started ticking up over the last few weeks. Plus, it`ll curtail these grossly hot temperatures we`ve seen the last few days. However, we`ll need to watch the rainfall totals over this stretch of days. Current WPC guidance suggests 2 to 3 inches basinal rainfall averages starting Wednesday through the start of next week. However, looking at ensembles, our southern counties have at least a 20% chance of seeing 4+ inches in that same time frame. Lots to work out over the next several days as rainfall totals will hinge heavily on how far south this boundary pushes. As far as the strength of storms specifically on Wednesday, forecast soundings are healthy, as one would expect in the summer, however both bulk shear and helicity values are greatly lacking. That said, decent lapse rates (~6.5 deg/km) and plenty of CAPE would alone suggest at least an isolated damaging wind threat Wednesday afternoon/evening before soundings become completely saturated. This should negate any severe weather through the remainder of this active period, leaving us to focus on how much rain we end up getting. For those headed to the beach or the Caribbean over the next week, the tropics look pretty quiet with typical afternoon thunderstorm patterns and no organized activity any time soon. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions continue today. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon near CSV. Otherwise, FEW to SCT high clouds will be around for most of the day. Winds will be out of the SSW between 5-8 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 99 77 99 78 / 20 10 10 30 Clarksville 95 75 96 75 / 10 0 20 50 Crossville 92 68 89 69 / 30 10 10 30 Columbia 98 74 98 75 / 20 10 10 20 Cookeville 92 71 91 72 / 20 10 10 40 Jamestown 92 71 90 71 / 20 10 10 40 Lawrenceburg 95 73 96 73 / 20 10 10 20 Murfreesboro 98 74 98 75 / 20 10 10 30 Waverly 96 74 96 74 / 10 0 10 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Baggett