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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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849 FXUS64 KOHX 170221 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 921 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 921 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 All is quiet across the area this evening. It does not feel pleasant with dew points in the low to mid 70s and temperatures in the 80s. The forecast is going to become a bit more uncertain as we head into the overnight and tomorrow. We will have a cold front drop down from the north and that will bring showers and thunderstorms tomorrow evening. The uncertainty is how widespread convection will be mainly ahead of that front tonight and tomorrow afternoon. If cells develop over KY over the next few hours they will push south and then some of our northern counties could get some thunderstorms mainly toward midnight lasting into the overnight. Then tomorrow late morning into the afternoon a short wave that is currently over KS will push east into our area and that will likely bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Finally the front will push into the area during the evening and will bring additional scattered showers and thunderstorms that will last into tomorrow night. Shear will be marginal in the northern part of the area tonight but lapse rates don`t look great. This should limit severe weather but still can`t rule out isolated strong wind gusts and some hail with any of the stronger cells. We should get a break in thunderstorms during the morning and that will help to destabilize the atmosphere some. Shear does look a bit higher tomorrow but still on the lower side for any organized convection. Similar with lapse rates, better than tonight but still not great. Overall the severe threat is low for tomorrow but still can`t rule out gusty winds and some hail with any stronger cells. Heavy rain can be expected with any thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 There`s been quite a bit of cloud cover around this morning thanks to yesterday`s Midwest MCS. An outflow boundary moved from north to south this morning through the CWA with showers and storms developing along and south of that boundary now from Perry to Warren County. I will let the Heat Advisory limp along but it may be a struggle reaching criteria for most of the area. Visible satellite does show the cirrus thinning from north to south, so a couple locations could get to 95-98 degrees and with dew points in the low to mid 70s, the heat index value could touch 105. One thing we`ll need to watch this afternoon is for storm development along the stationary boundary that is over eastern Missouri into southern Indiana. Some storms could develop along that and move south and eastward toward our northwestern counties. The CAMS have been inconsistent in the development and movement of this activity. If storms do develop and make a run for our area, there will be ample CAPE available and the storms could pose a damaging wind threat. There should be a break in activity overnight before more storms develop on Wednesday with a surface front draped over the area. Shear will still be on the weak side on Wednesday but once again, there will be ample instability. A couple storms may produce gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The surface boundary will linger around the area on Thursday continuing the storms chances across the area. The front will push far enough south Thursday night to bring an end to the storm chances for a day. Friday looks like the nicest day of the forecast with highs in the 80s and dew points in the low to mid 60s. There is a chance of an afternoon shower or storm Friday afternoon but that will be confined along the southern plateau. The front will creep back northwest on Saturday into Sunday bringing back rain chances. Those scattered storm chances continue into next week. Hopefully, most of the area can pick up an inch or two through the next seven days to help put a small dent in this flash drought. As far as temperatures, once we get past this afternoon, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to perhaps to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Showers and storms currently affecting CSV/SRB will die off in next couple of hours. VFR then expected at airports overnight before VCSH impact CKV/BNA/MQY around sunrise with MVFR cigs at CKV. Additional showers and storms are possible at airports late in the TAF period. Light and variable winds tonight will increase and become west/northwest on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 76 92 73 87 / 30 80 60 40 Clarksville 74 86 70 83 / 50 80 70 20 Crossville 70 89 66 80 / 30 90 70 70 Columbia 74 94 71 86 / 20 70 60 60 Cookeville 72 89 69 80 / 40 90 70 50 Jamestown 70 87 67 79 / 40 90 70 50 Lawrenceburg 73 93 70 85 / 20 70 60 60 Murfreesboro 74 95 71 86 / 20 80 60 50 Waverly 73 88 70 82 / 20 70 70 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Mueller SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Shamburger