783
FXUS64 KOHX 181143
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
643 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The oppressive heat has ended and we are moving into a a more
unsettled, showery pattern with slightly below normal temps.

Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours impacted
mainly our eastern and far northern counties yesterday and
overnight with the approach of a mid level trough and frontal
zone. The front will continue to ooze southeastward today, so most
of the new heat-driven shower and thunderstorm activity will be
focused over our southern and eastern counties this afternoon.
Once again some local heavy downpours are expected, but thankfully
the severe wx threat is very low. Highs today will be in the 80s
area-wide, and that is really the main story as we say good
riddance to the widespread 90s that have plagued us for so long.

Most rain chances will shut off early tonight as the
front slips south of our area. Lower humidity will move in on
north winds bringing very welcomed relief from the prolonged
muggy conditions. Patchy fog will form mainly across the Plateau
and south late tonight.

Friday looks like the best day of the forecast for many of us,
but muggy air and shower/storm chances will creep up into the
southeast half of our area as a wave develops along the frontal
zone just south of our area. Highs friday will be in the 80s once
again, so it is hard to complain.

Friday night will bring a few lingering showers, but the main
concern for Friday night will be a favorable setup for area-wide fog
formation late Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The extended forecast shows our area under troughing, sandwiched
between the Bermuda high and a larger western CONUS high. At the
surface, the boundary that is dropping through our area today
will lift northward this weekend as the Bermuda high expands
westward. This will set us up with a moist atmosphere and daily
chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms. Without a strong
ridge overhead, and with a good deal of diurnal cloudiness and
convection, temps should stay well-behaved with no extreme heat
expected. A few storms each day could produce some local heavy
downpours, but we do not expect severe storms. The latest guidance
shows 1 to 2 inches of rain over the next 7 days. The rain will be
generally scattered and disorganized, so some spots will over-
achieve with needed rain and some spots may not do as well. But
we should all get some rain and we will all benefit from this mid
summer break from the nasty heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Other than CKV, iso/sct shwrs across area. Forecast confidence
still not high enough to mention shwrs prevailing/temporary
terminal impacts, can not rule out vcnty development/movement.
Forecast confidence still not high enough to forecast tstms
prevailing, temporary, or even development in vcnty thru 19/00Z.
LIFR ceilings SRB/CSV will slowly raise to VFR thresholds by
18/21Z. VFR ceilings expected CKV/BNA/MQY. MVFR fog possible
SRB/CSV 19/06Z-19/12Z. Sfc winds prevailing light N thru 19/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  66  87  69 /  20   0  20  30
Clarksville    83  61  84  65 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     80  60  81  62 /  50  10  50  60
Columbia       87  64  86  67 /  40  10  30  30
Cookeville     81  62  82  65 /  30  10  40  50
Jamestown      80  61  82  64 /  30   0  40  50
Lawrenceburg   84  63  85  66 /  40  10  40  40
Murfreesboro   87  65  87  67 /  30  10  30  40
Waverly        84  62  84  64 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright