816
FXUS64 KOHX 190551
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1251 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Temperatures continue to fall with low 70s noted across the
northern counties with upper 70s across the south. Obs show
dewpoints already in the low 60s with some locations in southern
KY in the upper 50s. So expect a cool night tonight with lows
around 60 across the north to 65 across south. Might even see some
upper 50s for sheltered areas in the northern counties. A steady
northeasterly wind will keep fog development to a minimum.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The surface boundary has been making slow southeasterly progress
this morning with some light showers ahead of it. Behind the
front, winds have turned northerly with stratocu keeping the
temperatures in the 70s. Over the last hour some sunshine has
peeked out over Stewart and part of Montgomery counties. Some of
that sunshine will progress southeast through the afternoon. Along
with the sunshine, some lower dew points will also move in from
upstream. Current dew points in western KY are in the lower 60s.
Look for some of those reading in our northwest this afternoon.
Shower chances should clear our area this evening as the front
moves far enough south, but that will be temporary. A wave will
eject out of the deep south Friday morning pushing the boundary
back north and bringing the storms chances back with it. This will
not be areawide but mainly confined to the south and the plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The long term forecast continues to look wet with temperatures
slightly below normal which is good news for our fresh drought
problem. The upper air pattern will be characterized by broad
troughing with southwesterly flow in our area. The surface
boundary will lift back northward on Saturday and by Sunday the
front will be back north of the area with ample moisture streaming
into the area. The southwesterly upper flow continues into next
week with our area being on the western fringes of the Bermuda
high and some weak troughing to the north. This will leave us
unsettled with some small disturbances moving through the flow.
Look for scattered to numerous showers and storms each day through
the extended forecast. Shear will be weak each day, so no
organized severe threats are expected but rain will be heavy at
times. I know some locations missed out on yesterday`s rain, but
hopefully this pattern will help make up for that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Per low level moisture pooling potential, minimal cloudiness, and
calm winds,MVFR fog possible SRB/CSV 19/09Z-19/14Z. CKV/BNA/MQY,
mean forecast illustrating light NE sfc winds with sct/bkn CU/AC
thru 19/06Z. Confidence continues to be too low to mention
prevailing, moving across, or vcnty of tstms at SRB/CSV 19/21Z-
20/06Z. Although here also confidence not high enough to address
prevailing or moving across terminal site showers can not rule out
vcnty shwrs. Light/variable winds will prevail thru 20/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      88  70  89  71 /  10  20  20  20
Clarksville    84  66  87  68 /   0  10  10  10
Crossville     83  64  81  64 /  40  50  40  40
Columbia       87  67  89  69 /  20  30  30  30
Cookeville     83  66  83  66 /  20  40  30  30
Jamestown      82  65  81  65 /  20  40  30  30
Lawrenceburg   85  67  87  68 /  30  30  30  30
Murfreesboro   88  68  89  69 /  20  30  30  30
Waverly        85  66  88  67 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......05
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....JB Wright