405
FXUS64 KOHX 190701
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
201 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A frontal boundary moved through our area yesterday bringing an
end to the latest heatwave and ushering in a much more pleasant
air mass. The front was located just south of TN this morning and
high pressure centered over the Midwest was extending into our
area. Today will be a very nice wx day for most of us with near
normal temperatures and pleasant humidity levels by July
standards. Slightly higher humidity will accompany a chance for
scattered showers across the southern and southeastern parts of
our area (south of a line from Lawrenceburg to Crossville) as a
shortwave moves from the Lower Ms Valley to the Carolinas. Most of
Middle TN will stay rain-free today, but we will all see some
patchy clouds associated with this southern system.

For tonight through Saturday, a mid level trough will set up over
the Ms Valley. This setup will draw the stalled surface boundary
northward giving us a quick rebound in humidity levels and
chances for scattered showers and storms. The greatest rain
chances tonight through Saturday will be over the southeast half
of our area with low chances in the northwest. The pattern will
be "hit and miss" with some areas having soakers and other areas
still wishing for rain. Be patient- it looks like as we go into
next week, most everybody should get some substantial rainfall at
times as we lock into an unsettled pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The long term forecast continues to look unsettled with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms varying in coverage from
scattered to numerous. Generally, the greatest coverage will be in
the afternoon and early evening hours most days. The upper air
pattern will be characterized by broad troughing sandwiched
between a strong Bermuda High to our east and a big hot ridge out
west. The main trough axis will located just to our west, so we
will be positioned under southwest flow aloft which will bring
deep moisture and potential for soaking downpours at times.
Temperatures will lean a little below normal through next week
although it will feel quite muggy. Thankfully wind shear will be
weak, so we do not expect any organized severe storm threats.
Very localized brief flooding could occur with some of the
stronger storm clusters, but we are not expecting a widespread
flooding threat with mostly disorganized convection patterns.
Models show this pattern continuing through the week and perhaps
continuing on through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Per low level moisture pooling potential, minimal cloudiness, and
calm winds,MVFR fog possible SRB/CSV 19/09Z-19/14Z. CKV/BNA/MQY,
mean forecast illustrating light NE sfc winds with sct/bkn CU/AC
thru 19/06Z. Confidence continues to be too low to mention
prevailing, moving across, or vcnty of tstms at SRB/CSV 19/21Z-
20/06Z. Although here also confidence not high enough to address
prevailing or moving across terminal site showers can not rule out
vcnty shwrs. Light/variable winds will prevail thru 20/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  70  89  71 /  10  20  30  20
Clarksville    84  66  86  68 /   0  10  10  10
Crossville     83  64  79  64 /  40  50  70  40
Columbia       87  67  88  69 /  20  30  40  30
Cookeville     83  66  82  66 /  20  40  60  30
Jamestown      82  65  80  65 /  20  40  70  30
Lawrenceburg   85  67  86  68 /  30  30  60  30
Murfreesboro   88  68  88  69 /  20  30  50  30
Waverly        85  66  87  67 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright