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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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480 FXUS64 KOHX 191142 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 642 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A frontal boundary moved through our area yesterday bringing an end to the latest heatwave and ushering in a much more pleasant air mass. The front was located just south of TN this morning and high pressure centered over the Midwest was extending into our area. Today will be a very nice wx day for most of us with near normal temperatures and pleasant humidity levels by July standards. Slightly higher humidity will accompany a chance for scattered showers across the southern and southeastern parts of our area (south of a line from Lawrenceburg to Crossville) as a shortwave moves from the Lower Ms Valley to the Carolinas. Most of Middle TN will stay rain-free today, but we will all see some patchy clouds associated with this southern system. For tonight through Saturday, a mid level trough will set up over the Ms Valley. This setup will draw the stalled surface boundary northward giving us a quick rebound in humidity levels and chances for scattered showers and storms. The greatest rain chances tonight through Saturday will be over the southeast half of our area with low chances in the northwest. The pattern will be "hit and miss" with some areas having soakers and other areas still wishing for rain. Be patient- it looks like as we go into next week, most everybody should get some substantial rainfall at times as we lock into an unsettled pattern. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The long term forecast continues to look unsettled with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms varying in coverage from scattered to numerous. Generally, the greatest coverage will be in the afternoon and early evening hours most days. The upper air pattern will be characterized by broad troughing sandwiched between a strong Bermuda High to our east and a big hot ridge out west. The main trough axis will located just to our west, so we will be positioned under southwest flow aloft which will bring deep moisture and potential for soaking downpours at times. Temperatures will lean a little below normal through next week although it will feel quite muggy. Thankfully wind shear will be weak, so we do not expect any organized severe storm threats. Very localized brief flooding could occur with some of the stronger storm clusters, but we are not expecting a widespread flooding threat with mostly disorganized convection patterns. Models show this pattern continuing through the week and perhaps continuing on through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 For CKV/BNA will continue with a mean forecast illustrating light NE sfc winds with sct/bkn CU/AC thru 19/12Z. Confidence continues to be too low to mention prevailing, moving across, or vcnty of tstms at MQY/SRB/CSV 19/21Z- 20/12Z. Although here also confidence not high enough to address prevailing or moving across terminal site showers can not rule out vcnty shwrs. Light/variable winds will prevail thru 20/12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 70 89 71 / 10 20 30 20 Clarksville 84 66 86 68 / 0 10 10 10 Crossville 83 64 79 64 / 40 50 70 40 Columbia 87 67 88 69 / 20 30 40 30 Cookeville 83 66 82 66 / 20 40 60 30 Jamestown 82 65 80 65 / 20 40 70 30 Lawrenceburg 85 67 86 68 / 30 30 60 30 Murfreesboro 88 68 88 69 / 20 30 50 30 Waverly 85 66 87 67 / 0 10 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....JB Wright