956
FXUS64 KOHX 120518
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

High pressure is the dominant weather feature across the region,
and it`s going to stay that way for the foreseeable future. The
atmosphere across Middle Tennessee is quite dry and we`re going to
be stuck in a dry, hot pattern until maybe next Wednesday.
Fortunately, dew points will stay just low enough to keep us out
of heat advisory criteria until probably next Tuesday, in spite of
afternoon temperatures reaching the mid and upper 90s for the
next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The temperature and humidity will start creeping up today and each
day through the remainder of the forecast. A weak mid level trough
will remain to our northwest through Friday evening keeping
conditions dry and warm with temperatures rising into the low to
mid 90s each afternoon. Overnight lows are expected to be in the
mid to upper 60s Friday morning, which may be the coolest
temperatures we see for the next week. This could help encourage
patchy fog early tomorrow morning, especially around bodies of
water. As the previously mentioned mid level trough lifts north a
weak shortwave will bring a quick shot of showers and storms to
western Kentucky during the day on Friday. A few showers could
hold together and drift into our northwest counties late Friday,
but chances are fairly low for now. If they do make it into
Tennessee, they should be quickly decaying.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The weekend looks hot and dry with all eyes on the rising
dewpoints and temps. The heat index will work it`s way to 100 by
Sunday afternoon west of the Plateau and we`ll only get warmer as
the work week begins. There is some model discrepancy on how warm
temperatures will get. We should see an increase in moisture
Monday through Wednesday, when our national blend wants to push
temperatures above 100. This may be a bit too warm considering the
climbing dewpoints we`re also expecting, so decided to back off
slightly on the high temperatures, but this does NOT mean it won`t
be hot. The heat index should approach or possibly exceed 105
degrees by midweek next week. We should see some relief come in
the form of scattered showers and storms Wednesday that become
more widespread into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Other than some transient fog at SRB for the rest of the overnight
hours, all Middle Tennessee terminals are expected to be VFR for
the taf period. Winds at CKV/BNA/MQY are expected to be northerly
around 5-8 kts this afternoon before decrease below 5 kts this
evening. Winds at CSV/SRB will be out of the WNW/NW around 5 kts
or less for the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  74  98  74 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    92  71  94  72 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       96  70  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     90  68  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      89  66  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   95  70  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   96  71  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        93  70  95  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Whitehead
LONG TERM....Whitehead
AVIATION.....Reagan