109
FXUS64 KOHX 171609
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1109 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A few showers are beginning to pop up in the western part of the
CWA at this time. This comes as a surface boundary slowly
approaches the area. Numerous showers and storms will develop
early this afternoon and move eastward. This does not guarantee
everyone will receive rain but many will benefit. Scattered
showers and storms will be less numerous overnight, but there will
likely still be some around. Rain chances will decrease from
northwest to southeast overnight as the boundary slowly sags
through the area. Scattered storms will be possible again on
Thursday but those storms will be confined to the southeastern
third of the area. Those behind the boundary will see some cooler
temperatures and some slightly lower humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Friday continues to look like the best day of the forecast. The
boundary will still be close enough for a couple scattered storms
for the same area as Thursday, but overall, high temperatures
will be in the 80s with tolerable humidity. Looking at the weekend
and beyond, we will be sandwiched between the Bermuda high and a
larger western CONUS high giving us a troughy upper air pattern.
At the surface, that boundary that will move through our area
tonight will lift back northward Saturday and Sunday as the
Bermuda high expands westward giving us some more shower and
storm chances. Ample moisture will flow into the area from the
south as we move into next week with no overbearing upper high
sitting on top of us. This will give us daily shower and storm
chances through the rest of the forecast. As far as temperatures
are concerned, highs will be reasonable for this time of year with
temperatures topping out in the 80s and perhaps touching 90
degrees at a few locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A surface boundary will inch its way across Middle Tennessee
during the next 24 hours, and already we are seeing scattered
convection develop over parts of the mid state. The activity will
become more widespread this afternoon, and the 18-21Z window is
when we`re most focused on actual thunderstorms. Showers are
likely to last into the evening, with low ceilings moving in after
midnight along with some light fog development in some areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  72  87  66 /  80  60  20   0
Clarksville    86  69  84  61 /  80  40  10   0
Crossville     88  65  81  59 /  90  70  40  10
Columbia       93  70  87  64 /  70  50  30  10
Cookeville     87  68  82  62 /  90  70  30   0
Jamestown      86  66  81  59 / 100  70  30   0
Lawrenceburg   92  69  86  64 /  80  60  40  10
Murfreesboro   94  70  87  64 /  80  70  20  10
Waverly        87  68  84  62 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Rose