Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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551 FXUS64 KOHX 021731 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1231 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Started off today much cooler than we`ve been experiencing lately. Unfortunately, the uncomfortable heat and high humidity will be making a return later today, and will be sticking with us through Friday. An upper level ridge has already started building in over the southeast and return flow will bring ample moisture back into in the area. The warmer air temps combined with the higher dew point temps will send heat index values into the 105+ range Wednesday. With that, a heat advisory will be in effect during the day tomorrow from 1pm-7pm. A wave passing to our north will bring the chance for a few scattered thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Models show instability values reaching into the 1500 J/kg range, so a few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. PWAT values will be near 2", so very heavy rain will be likely with any thunderstorms that develop. As we`ve recently seen, some localized flash flooding could occur under these storms. On the plus side, mid-level lapse rates are quite low with values near 5.5 C/km. Shear is also on the lower side with values near 15 kts. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 As we move into the 4th of July, the intense heat and high humidity will once again likely warrant another heat advisory. Lower heights resulting from a strong upper-level low over the midwest will scoot over Tennessee during the day Thursday, bringing an increased and more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. This could help keep temperatures a bit cooler for some, thus we`re holding off on issuing any heat products for now. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for the majority of the area Thursday. Instability looks greater and there will be better forcing with the shortwave passing aloft over our north, so a few strong to potentially severe storms will again be possible. Models continue to show coverage greatly decreasing by Thursday night, so hopefully that continues to be the trend as not to be a damper on any Independence Day plans. As we get into Friday, it`s likely going to be a rainy and overcast day for the most part as a cold front pushes through the area. I use the term cold front loosely as temperatures will remain near or at 90 degrees this weekend. We will have a brief drying out period Saturday afternoon through Sunday before rain chances return Monday and Tuesday. The upper-air pattern to start the week features a trough moving in from the Great Plains that will keep rain chances in the forecast each day to start the new work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions will continue for the taf period. Winds will be southerly around 10 kts this afternoon. Winds at CKV/CSV/SRB will decrease below 5 kts this evening before increasing closer to 10 kts again by mid morning Wednesday. Winds at BNA/MQY are expected to remain above 5 kts overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 77 97 78 95 / 0 20 40 70 Clarksville 75 95 76 92 / 0 20 60 70 Crossville 67 89 70 88 / 0 10 40 70 Columbia 75 97 76 96 / 0 20 30 60 Cookeville 71 91 74 89 / 0 10 40 70 Jamestown 70 91 72 88 / 0 10 50 70 Lawrenceburg 74 96 75 94 / 0 10 30 50 Murfreesboro 75 98 77 96 / 0 20 40 70 Waverly 75 96 76 93 / 0 20 50 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston- Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry- Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne- Williamson-Wilson. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Reagan