892
FXUS64 KOHX 131124
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
624 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A quiet morning is underway across Middle TN. Mostly clear skies and
light winds rule the roost. With dew point depressions expected to
slowly get smaller and smaller over the next few hours, patchy fog
will start to develop. I don`t expect this to be too widespread, but
the usual spots will see it. If you`re near bodies of water through
daybreak, use caution on area roads as visibility could drop quickly.

After going back and looking at the last couple days, I had a
decision to make regarding PoPs today and tomorrow. This weekend`s
pattern is very similar to what we`ve seen the last couple of days:
dirty ridging and plenty of moisture hanging around the region has
lead to at least very isolated rain chances. The radar definitely
hasn`t been completely clear. Models are kind of all over the
place regarding rain chances. CAMs develop these spotty
showers/storms each of the next two afternoons. The NAM is
completely dry, along with the NBM. I don`t think I have enough to
include a mentionable PoP, so I`m going to stick with this 10%
weekend afternoon PoP we`ve had for the last several forecast
packages. It won`t register in the zones, but just know a couple
of very isolated showers/storms will be possible each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The best chance for widespread showers and storms still looks to
return to the mid-state on Wednesday. Models are in pretty good
agreement about this, so we`ve got several more days before that
gets here. The big story between now and then is going to be the
heat. Upper 90s with several spots flirting with triple digits
Sunday, Monday and Tuesday look to be on the docket. Monday and
Tuesday look like the hottest days of this package with Heat Index
values expected to exceed Heat Advisory criteria, but don`t sleep on
today and tomorrow if you have outdoor plans. Heat Index values west
of the Cumberland Plateau will likely climb into the low triple
digits each of the next two afternoons.

Don`t like the heat? You`re not alone, so I`ve got some potentially
good news. After Wednesday`s rains, there`s some pretty decent
agreement about temperatures falling back to or just below seasonal
norms as northerly flow and some troughing to our north/northwest
helps stifle some of this heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Some areas of patchy fog still impacting terminals, though this
will burn off after 13Z. VFR conditions will continue at all
sites this taf cycle with a light north wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      98  74  99  76 /  10   0  10   0
Clarksville    93  72  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
Crossville     91  67  91  68 /  10   0  10   0
Columbia       98  71  99  72 /  10   0  10   0
Cookeville     91  69  92  71 /  10  10  10   0
Jamestown      90  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   96  71  97  71 /  10   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   98  72  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
Waverly        95  72  96  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Baggett