004
FXUS64 KOHX 132327
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
627 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Warming up nicely this late morning. Temperatures are generally in
the upper 80s to near 90. Dewpoints are still holding in the 60s for
many areas. This trend should continue through Sunday as the low
level flow remains generally land locked. Short term mods do
indicate some isolated convective development across our south both
this afternoon and again on Sunday. 18Z cap erosion is indicated
with some isolated pockets of late afternoon lift. Coverage however
looks like <= 10% so no official pop inclusion at this time. Otw,
some isolated patchy fog possible for the upcoming overnights. Tover
values should remain positive for the most part, however.

The bigger story will be the heat. Yesterday`s high at BNA was 96F
and it appears that each of the next few afternoons will be getting
slightly warmer. As mentioned prior, the influx of added humidity
should hold off until Monday at the earliest. So we should be able
to tack on a few added degrees to our highs till then. Looking
closely at Euro/GFS 850 mb temp progs, we should see an increase of
3C-3.5C by Monday at that level. This attests to the expected slow
warmup toward the century mark at BNA. Officially, the grids for
surface temps will include 99F on Sunday and 100F on Monday. The
return of some added humidity could put us into heat advisory
terrain for Monday and Tuesday. Note that thermal w-e ridging
becomes more pronounced just to our north by that time. So, plenty
of heat upcoming.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat
Jul 13 2024

For the extended forecast, we are going to transition into a more
active pattern. That will certainly be some welcomed news for many.
Not really seeing any flood threat or severe potential. Although
with a frontal passage expected Wednesday night, perhaps 1 or two
stronger storms could emerge in the afternoon. The spc convective
outlooks, for now, look to be free of any severe potential.

So the boundary will push just to our south with considerable pops
remaining into Thursday. Trough development to our west will keep us
rather moist with convection chances continuing through Saturday as
well. Thus, look for pops each and every day through the
period. Otw, the tropics continue to look as clean as a whistle.

As for the extended temps, they look to be much more tolerable. With
the added clouds and precip chances, after the pre frontal lower 90s
on Wednesday, we will then see mid to upper 80s for highs. Overnight
lows will also improve and will dip into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some patchy
fog will be possible in the vicinity of KSRB between 08 and 12z.
SCT 040-060 clouds again during the afternoon tomorrow. We could
also see a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Light northerly winds under 6 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  99  75 100 /   0  10   0  10
Clarksville    71  95  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     67  91  68  94 /   0  10   0  10
Columbia       71  99  72 100 /   0  10   0  10
Cookeville     69  92  71  95 /   0  10   0  10
Jamestown      67  91  69  94 /   0  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   71  96  72  98 /   0  10   0  10
Murfreesboro   71  99  72 101 /   0  10   0  10
Waverly        71  96  73  98 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Mueller