681
FXUS64 KOHX 141125
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Another quiet morning across the region. Some fog development is
likely yet again in the usual spots as winds are calm, skies are
clear and dew point depressions get smaller and smaller. No
expectations of anything widespread, but use caution on area
roadways near bodies of water through about 730 am as visibilities
could drop quickly.

This is kind of a rinse and repeat forecast package today as the
pattern has become fairly stagnant. Dirty ridging aloft and plenty
of instability has allowed a few storms to develop each of the
last three afternoons and today should be no different. Have
decided to include a low afternoon PoP today, especially for areas
along and south of I-40. While nothing severe is expected, it is
summertime. Any storms that develop will run the risk of strong
gusty winds. The next couple of day actually look very similar, so
if you have outdoor afternoon plans, keep an eye on radar.

As has been the case the last few days, the heat continues to be the
main story. We reached 99 at BNA yesterday and at this rate, I would
argue there`s just no reason not to believe we`ll reach the century
mark at least one of the next few days. Dew points will be the
deciding factor. Lower dew points allow for the mercury to rise
easier, so if we`re able to mix out at all any of the next 3 days,
triple digits are achievable. For this reason, I`m not going to
adjust NBM MaxTs today. 99 or 100 is hot, no matter how you cut it.
The way it`s looking right now, I could see us reaching 100 today
with slightly lower dew points and not reaching Monday and Tuesday
under increased low level moisture. The difference being, with
higher dew points Mon/Tue, a Heat Advisory still looks likely one or
both days due to Heat Index values north of 105 for areas west of
the Cumberland Plateau. What stinks is a lack of overnight relief,
so we may be looking at a very uncomfortable next few days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Speaking of relief, it`s coming. Rain chances are still looking
pretty good Wednesday and Thursday as a boundary moves into the
region. In fact, latest guidance would suggest the boundary stalling
out and bleeding rain chances in Friday. If this does happen, we
will need watch rainfall totals closely during the second half of
the week. With PWs near 2.0 inches, rainfall could pile up and cause
some flooding issues. With the talk of late-week rainfall, we can
also look forward to much cooler temperatures. Some mid 80s may
actually be in the cards by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Once the last of the patchy fog burns off after 13Z, VFR
conditions will be in place for all terminals. Some SCT high
clouds will build in later this morning with a light westerly
wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville     100  76  99  76 /  20  10  10   0
Clarksville    96  74  96  75 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     92  69  93  69 /  20  10  20  10
Columbia       99  72  99  73 /  30  20  10  10
Cookeville     93  71  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
Jamestown      91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   97  72  97  73 /  30  20  20  10
Murfreesboro   99  74 100  74 /  30  10  10  10
Waverly        97  72  97  74 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Baggett