486
FXUS64 KOHX 160528
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

All of the convection along the plateau has dissipated leaving the
area completely dry. Conditions will stay dry through tomorrow
morning before isolated convection develops again. There could be
some patchy fog along the southern plateau late tonight for areas
that received some rain this afternoon. The main concern for
tomorrow continues to be the heat. Macon County was added to the
heat advisory, otherwise no changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

We have already issued a Heat Advisory for this afternoon and
again for tomorrow, but mostly for tomorrow. We do expect a few
locations in the advisory area to reach a heat index of 105+
today, but even more so tomorrow. A surface ridge is situated to
our east today, placing us under a southwesterly flow at the
surface. There are some storm chances today mainly along the
Cumberland Plateau, and again for tomorrow. Tomorrow is going to
be the hottest day, because temperatures will start to back down
after tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A strong surface boundary will approach Middle Tennessee from the
northwest late tomorrow night, with storm chances developing by
the overnight period and becoming more widespread on Wednesday.
The boundary will become quasi-stationary over us (yay!) and won`t
completely make it through the mid state until Thursday night or
Friday, but will then come back through as a warm front as it
connects with a low pressure system out west this weekend and the
first part of next week. So we`re about to trade our hot, dry
pattern for a rainier spell with much cooler temperatures. At
this time, we aren`t outlooked for any severe storms. The only
hazardous weather is the Heat Advisory covering this afternoon
and tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR. Light and variable winds will become more westerly/southwesterly
around 5 to 10 knots during the day, becoming light and variable
after sunset. Some isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be
possible today, but coverage and confidence is low attm, so left
out mention in the forecast for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville     100  77  93  72 /  10  30  70  80
Clarksville    97  74  87  68 /  10  40  60  60
Crossville     92  69  89  65 /  20  20  80  80
Columbia      100  75  96  70 /  20  10  70  80
Cookeville     93  73  89  68 /  10  30  80  80
Jamestown      92  71  87  66 /  10  30  80  80
Lawrenceburg   97  73  93  70 /  10  10  70  80
Murfreesboro  100  75  96  71 /  10  20  80  80
Waverly        98  74  92  70 /  10  10  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cheatham-
Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-
Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-
Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Barnwell