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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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985 FXUS64 KOHX 160656 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 156 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Quiet but warm night across the mid state with current temps still in the upper 70s for most areas. Lows are expected to only drop a few more degrees, with the Plateau seeing the coolest lows around 70. Temps will again warm up today, and with increasing dewpoints ahead of the next upper trough, heat index values will climb into the 105-110 range this afternoon for areas west of the Plateau. Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 8 pm this evening. If dewpoints remain in the 70s it will be tough to see 100 degrees, but any low level mixing may allow for dewpoints in the Nashville area to drop into the mid 60s and possibly yield triple digit high temps. CAMs show some weak disturbances aloft this afternoon, and with more westerly/southwesterly winds, we could see some afternoon convection mainly for the eastern half of the area through sunset. Better chances for showers and storms will move in tonight through the day Wednesday. Some decent instability will be in place but shear will be pretty weak today. Slightly stronger shear will move in during the day Wednesday, so we may have some strong storms with gusty winds Wednesday. But, can`t rule out a strong storm or two in the northwest tonight ahead of the boundary. PWAT values will be on the rise, getting up to around 2 inches by Wednesday afternoon, and with slow storm motions, heavy rain with some flooding could be possible over flood prone areas this afternoon if storms develop. Higher chances are in place through Wednesday/Wednesday night as PWAT increases along with increasing coverage of showers and storms. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The cold front will become more stationary Thursday, allowing for more showers and storms to develop especially Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Overall looking at widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain across the area, but any stronger storms that develop with slower storm motions and/or training will be able to put down more heavy rainfall. Friday and Saturday look to be drier, with chances for showers and storms confined to the southeast half of the area mainly during afternoon hours. We will be cooler than the temps we have seen, and even slightly below average with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. That will continue to finish off the weekend and into next week. Ensembles showing some uncertainty into next week regarding precip chances, but with continued southwest flow aloft this weekend and a stronger upper trough Sunday through Tuesday possible, expect rain chances to continue and increase Sunday through midweek. Again the focus looks to be the southeast half of the area, but keeping in summertime afternoon convection each day will hopefully help our dry period. Right now, not looking like any strong to severe storms next weekend onward, but with continued southwest flow aloft it will only take a shortwave or stronger upper trough to bring chances up for stronger convection. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR. Light and variable winds will become more westerly/southwesterly around 5 to 10 knots during the day, becoming light and variable after sunset. Some isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible today, but coverage and confidence is low attm, so left out mention in the forecast for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 100 77 93 72 / 10 30 70 80 Clarksville 97 74 87 68 / 10 40 70 60 Crossville 92 69 89 65 / 30 20 80 80 Columbia 100 75 96 70 / 20 10 70 80 Cookeville 93 73 89 68 / 20 30 80 80 Jamestown 92 71 87 66 / 20 30 80 80 Lawrenceburg 97 73 93 70 / 10 10 70 80 Murfreesboro 100 75 96 71 / 20 20 80 80 Waverly 98 74 92 70 / 10 10 70 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cheatham- Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis- Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith- Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....Barnwell