968
FXUS64 KOHX 161702
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1202 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

There`s been quite a bit of cloud cover around this morning thanks
to yesterday`s Midwest MCS. An outflow boundary moved from north
to south this morning through the CWA with showers and storms
developing along and south of that boundary now from Perry to
Warren County. I will let the Heat Advisory limp along but it may
be a struggle reaching criteria for most of the area. Visible
satellite does show the cirrus thinning from north to south, so a
couple locations could get to 95-98 degrees and with dew points in
the low to mid 70s, the heat index value could touch 105.

One thing we`ll need to watch this afternoon is for storm
development along the stationary boundary that is over eastern
Missouri into southern Indiana. Some storms could develop along
that and move south and eastward toward our northwestern
counties. The CAMS have been inconsistent in the development and
movement of this activity. If storms do develop and make a run for
our area, there will be ample CAPE available and the storms could
pose a damaging wind threat.

There should be a break in activity overnight before more storms
develop on Wednesday with a surface front draped over the area.
Shear will still be on the weak side on Wednesday but once again,
there will be ample instability. A couple storms may produce gusty
winds.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The surface boundary will linger around the area on Thursday
continuing the storms chances across the area. The front will push
far enough south Thursday night to bring an end to the storm
chances for a day. Friday looks like the nicest day of the
forecast with highs in the 80s and dew points in the low to mid
60s. There is a chance of an afternoon shower or storm Friday
afternoon but that will be confined along the southern plateau.
The front will creep back northwest on Saturday into Sunday
bringing back rain chances. Those scattered storm chances continue
into next week. Hopefully, most of the area can pick up an inch
or two through the next seven days to help put a small dent in
this flash drought. As far as temperatures, once we get past this
afternoon, high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to perhaps
to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR. Confidence remains low on showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon today, with CAMs not showing any consistency on
coverage or location. Kept out mention of TSRA this afternoon, but
KCSV/KSRB may see some isolated activity around terminals this
afternoon. A line of showers and storms may hold together long
enough to impact KCKV late this evening into the overnight hours,
and could make it to KBNA/KMQY, but just have mention at KCKV for
now. Expect southwest/westerly winds around 5 to 10 knots during
the day, becoming light and variable after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      98  77  94  73 /  20  30  70  60
Clarksville    93  74  88  70 /  10  50  80  70
Crossville     90  69  89  66 /  40  30  80  70
Columbia       96  74  95  71 /  20  20  70  60
Cookeville     92  72  89  69 /  40  40  80  70
Jamestown      90  70  87  67 /  40  40  90  70
Lawrenceburg   95  73  94  70 /  20  20  70  60
Murfreesboro   97  75  95  71 /  20  20  80  60
Waverly        94  73  89  70 /  10  30  70  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cheatham-
Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-
Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-
Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Barnwell