722
FXUS64 KOHX 161110
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
610 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Quiet but warm night across the mid state with current temps still
in the upper 70s for most areas. Lows are expected to only drop a
few more degrees, with the Plateau seeing the coolest lows around
70. Temps will again warm up today, and with increasing dewpoints
ahead of the next upper trough, heat index values will climb into
the 105-110 range this afternoon for areas west of the Plateau.
Heat Advisory will remain in effect until 8 pm this evening. If
dewpoints remain in the 70s it will be tough to see 100 degrees,
but any low level mixing may allow for dewpoints in the Nashville
area to drop into the mid 60s and possibly yield triple digit high
temps. CAMs show some weak disturbances aloft this afternoon, and
with more westerly/southwesterly winds, we could see some
afternoon convection mainly for the eastern half of the area
through sunset. Better chances for showers and storms will move in
tonight through the day Wednesday. Some decent instability will be
in place but shear will be pretty weak today. Slightly stronger
shear will move in during the day Wednesday, so we may have some
strong storms with gusty winds Wednesday. But, can`t rule out a
strong storm or two in the northwest tonight ahead of the
boundary. PWAT values will be on the rise, getting up to around 2
inches by Wednesday afternoon, and with slow storm motions, heavy
rain with some flooding could be possible over flood prone areas
this afternoon if storms develop. Higher chances are in place
through Wednesday/Wednesday night as PWAT increases along with
increasing coverage of showers and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The cold front will become more stationary Thursday, allowing for
more showers and storms to develop especially Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Overall looking at widespread 1 to 2 inches of
rain across the area, but any stronger storms that develop with
slower storm motions and/or training will be able to put down more
heavy rainfall. Friday and Saturday look to be drier, with chances
for showers and storms confined to the southeast half of the area
mainly during afternoon hours. We will be cooler than the temps we
have seen, and even slightly below average with highs in the upper
80s to around 90. That will continue to finish off the weekend and
into next week. Ensembles showing some uncertainty into next week
regarding precip chances, but with continued southwest flow aloft
this weekend and a stronger upper trough Sunday through Tuesday
possible, expect rain chances to continue and increase Sunday
through midweek. Again the focus looks to be the southeast half of
the area, but keeping in summertime afternoon convection each day
will hopefully help our dry period. Right now, not looking like
any strong to severe storms next weekend onward, but with
continued southwest flow aloft it will only take a shortwave or
stronger upper trough to bring chances up for stronger convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR. Confidence remains low on showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon today, with CAMs not showing any consistency on
coverage or location. Kept out mention of TSRA this afternoon, but
KCSV/KSRB may see some isolated activity around terminals this
afternoon. A line of showers and storms may hold together long
enough to impact KCKV late this evening into the overnight hours,
and could make it to KBNA/KMQY, but just have mention at KCKV for
now. Expect southwest/westerly winds around 5 to 10 knots during
the day, becoming light and variable after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      99  77  92  72 /  10  30  70  80
Clarksville    96  74  87  68 /  10  40  70  60
Crossville     91  70  88  65 /  30  20  80  80
Columbia       99  75  94  70 /  20  10  70  80
Cookeville     93  73  89  68 /  20  30  80  80
Jamestown      91  70  87  66 /  20  30  80  80
Lawrenceburg   96  73  92  70 /  10  10  70  80
Murfreesboro   99  75  95  71 /  20  20  80  80
Waverly        97  75  92  70 /  10  10  70  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cheatham-
Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-
Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-
Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Barnwell