450
FXUS63 KOAX 152224
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
524 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon through early
  evening. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms. Main risks are quarter size hail and 60 MPH
  wind gusts.

- Fairly quiet tonight through the weekend with only a couple
  very slight chances (20%) for rain. Near to just below normal
  temperatures and seasonable humidity.

- Low end chances (20-30%) for showers/storms return Tuesday
  into Wednesday, but best chances remain off to the west of
  eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Main forecast concern in the short term is the potential for
isolated showers and thunderstorms and a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) for severe weather. A compact, but potent, vorticity max
is located over the Siouxland area, helping to drive a narrow
line of convection over NE Neb this afternoon. Another area of
potential development will be along an outflow boundary,
currently running from around Tekamah to York. Lastly, the
primary synoptic cold front is draped across far SE Neb. The
vort max is lifting E/ENE, further away from the SEward sinking
cold front...casting some uncertainty on overall thunderstorm
coverage through early evening. CAMs have struggled to get a
handle on activity throughout the day today, which only adds to
the uncertainty. With that said, there has certainly been run-
to-run consistency that any activity through sunset will be
fairly isolated and tend to be more driven by the vort lobe than
the sfc front. So chances S of I-80 look really conditional and
rather slim. However, SHOULD a storm develop anywhere this
aftn, moderate instability and modest deep layer wind shear
could support a marginally severe thunderstorm risk through
around 7PM. Boundary layer cooling should lead to rapidly
decreasing potential around sunset.

Otherwise, the rest of the forecast actually looks fairly quiet,
with mainly near to just below normal temperatures and
seasonable humidity. The upper level pattern will really amplify
heading into the weekend, with a deep trough (by August
standards) over the eastern 1/3rd of the CONUS, and a strong
upper ridge along the Rockies. Thus, the really active and cool
weather looks to remain off to the E, and the really hot
temperatures off to the W/SW over the central and southern High
Plains. This leaves eastern NE and western IA left in the
middle and generally near-average in terms of temperatures.

As usual in highly amplified NW/NNW upper flow, the area
will likely get brushed by several weak disturbances over the
coming days, but deep moisture will be lacking and focused
further W, just downstream of the upper ridge axis. Thus, there
are some off and on rain chances in the extended forecast, but
they are quite "low-end" (20-30%) and not really too much to get
excited about if you`re looking for moisture. In fact, the 12Z
EPS gives the LNK and OMA metros less than 10% chance for at
least a half inch of moisture over the next 7 days, and only as
high as 20-30% over the far N along NE/SD border.

Overall, should be looking at an extended stretch of mostly
quiet weather with seasonably comfortable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
through northeast Nebraska in the 00-02Z timeframe. These
showers and not expected to reach KOFK or KOMA. Light
northwesterly winds will gradually shift to southwesterly
through the overnight hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Wood