909
FXUS63 KOAX 161103
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
603 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances (20%) for light rain across our far
  southwestern counties today.

- High-level smoke is possible across northern Nebraska today.

- Seasonal temperatures with a small chance (15-25%) of showers
  and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Otherwise,
  mostly dry conditions into the extended periods.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Today and tonight:

Much of the forecast will remain quiet with temperatures near to
slightly below normal for this time of the year. Northwesterly upper
level flow will continue overhead as we remain between the backside
of a departing upper trough over the Great Lakes region and
amplifying ridging to our west. This will keep much of the extreme
heat bottled up across the far southern Plains through the period.
HRRR smoke fields do show some increase in vertically integrated
smoke across our far northern counties through the day to filter
some of the sunlight.

Ongoing weak convection across northeast Colorado and western
Nebraska is forecast to continue to move east/southeast throughout
the morning and could skirt our far southwestern counties as a
weak mid-level disturbance moves southeast through central
Nebraska. We do only have small chances (15-20%) as deeper
moisture remains limited.

The weekend and beyond:

The forecast for Saturday and Sunday will remain dry with
fairly light winds (under 15kts) as a surface ridge slowly moves
overhead. Precipitation chances will increase across western
Nebraska as we move into later Sunday which could provide an
increase in high clouds to our area, but that`s about it.
Ensemble and deterministic guidance into our extended periods do
begin to show a warming trend as we move into later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

West-northwesterly winds are in place this morning with patchy
fog in southwest Iowa struggling to expand any closer towards
Nebraska. Winds should remain relatively light and only become
more northwesterly with a few to scattered high clouds while
KOFK sees a few gusts this afternoon just under 20 kts. There`s
an outside chance at a stray shower or storm making its way near
KOFK around 03-06z tonight but that likelihood is closer to a
10% chance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Petersen