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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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585 FXUS63 KOAX 101710 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected across the region through Tuesday, then back to near normal temperatures (widespread 80s) for Wednesday and beyond. - Rain chances return Sunday into early Monday with potential for a few stronger storms in northeast Nebraska Sunday evening. - Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the work week, especially during the evening and overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Cool and fairly quiet across the area tonight with surface high pressure in place as we remained under northwest flow aloft with a cutoff low still spinning north of Lake Superior and ridging over the western CONUS. About the only things of note were 2 AM temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s (10-20 degrees below average lows this time of year) and some light rain associated with weak shortwave energy moving southwest NE and western KS. Some of these may clip portions of southeast NE through this morning, but the stronger forcing will largely stay to our south and low level dry air will limit anything that does move through our area. A few CAMs also hint at some spotty sprinkle/light shower development this afternoon, but dry air will again prevent much from reaching the ground. So it should end up being a pretty pleasant day with highs mostly in the mid 70s. By late tonight/early Sunday, a much stronger shortwave trough will start to approach possibly bringing some showers and isolated storms to eastern NE for the morning hours (20-40% chance), though they should generally dissipate as they push east, with the primary (and modest) moisture plume largely remaining to our west. How long these last and how long any associated cloud cover lingers will likely play a role in how late afternoon/overnight (strong?) storm chances pan out with another shortwave trough pushing through. There will be plenty of deep layer shear for storm organization, but guidance suggests the greatest instability will remain to our west. So the general idea is that we see storm development across southern SD into north-central NE Sunday afternoon with some potential for these to be severe, but they should generally weaken as they push southeast into our area. Still, I wouldn`t completely rule out some severe weather edging into northeast NE during the evening hours. While they should weaken, they do look to hold together enough to give much of the area at least a little rain overnight (50-70% chance). Heading into next week, the aforementioned ridge over the western CONUS will gradually push east into our area, eventually getting our temperatures back to average for this time of year (widespread 80s by Wednesday). Despite the ridge, we will see continued shower and storm chances, especially during the evening and overnight hours as several more shortwave troughs slide through. It`s still too early to talk about severe weather chances in detail, but if there are any, they would likely hold off until Wednesday or after when guidance suggests we get a little bit more moisture and instability into the forecast area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions through the period with southwest winds less than 8 knots, becoming south southeast by 00-02z. There are spotty shower chances especially at KLNK 11/12-18z, but the chances are too low to reliably include in the TAF forecast at this time. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...DeWald