585
FXUS63 KOAX 101710
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected
  across the region through Tuesday, then back to near normal
  temperatures (widespread 80s) for Wednesday and beyond.

- Rain chances return Sunday into early Monday with potential
  for a few stronger storms in northeast Nebraska Sunday
  evening.

- Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the work
  week, especially during the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Cool and fairly quiet across the area tonight with surface high
pressure in place as we remained under northwest flow aloft with a
cutoff low still spinning north of Lake Superior and ridging over
the western CONUS. About the only things of note were 2 AM
temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s (10-20 degrees below
average lows this time of year) and some light rain associated
with weak shortwave energy moving southwest NE and western KS.
Some of these may clip portions of southeast NE through this
morning, but the stronger forcing will largely stay to our south
and low level dry air will limit anything that does move
through our area. A few CAMs also hint at some spotty
sprinkle/light shower development this afternoon, but dry air
will again prevent much from reaching the ground. So it should
end up being a pretty pleasant day with highs mostly in the mid
70s.

By late tonight/early Sunday, a much stronger shortwave trough will
start to approach possibly bringing some showers and isolated storms
to eastern NE for the morning hours (20-40% chance), though they
should generally dissipate as they push east, with the primary (and
modest) moisture plume largely remaining to our west. How long these
last and how long any associated cloud cover lingers will likely
play a role in how late afternoon/overnight (strong?) storm chances
pan out with another shortwave trough pushing through. There will be
plenty of deep layer shear for storm organization, but guidance
suggests the greatest instability will remain to our west. So the
general idea is that we see storm development across southern SD
into north-central NE Sunday afternoon with some potential for these
to be severe, but they should generally weaken as they push
southeast into our area. Still, I wouldn`t completely rule out some
severe weather edging into northeast NE during the evening hours.
While they should weaken, they do look to hold together enough to
give much of the area at least a little rain overnight (50-70%
chance).

Heading into next week, the aforementioned ridge over the western
CONUS will gradually push east into our area, eventually getting our
temperatures back to average for this time of year (widespread 80s
by Wednesday). Despite the ridge, we will see continued shower and
storm chances, especially during the evening and overnight hours as
several more shortwave troughs slide through. It`s still too early
to talk about severe weather chances in detail, but if there are
any, they would likely hold off until Wednesday or after when
guidance suggests we get a little bit more moisture and instability
into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions through the period with southwest winds less than
8 knots, becoming south southeast by 00-02z. There are spotty
shower chances especially at KLNK 11/12-18z, but the chances are
too low to reliably include in the TAF forecast at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...DeWald