515
FXUS63 KOAX 102308
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
608 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected
  across the region through Tuesday, then back to near normal
  temperatures (widespread 80s) for Wednesday and beyond.

- Rain chances return Sunday into early Monday with potential
  for a few stronger storms in portions of eastern Nebraska
  Sunday evening.

- Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the
  upcoming work week, especially during the evening and
  overnight hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Quiet weather expected tonight with partly to mostly cloudy
skies with low temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 50s.

There is a short wave currently moving through the Pacific
Northwest, and this will move into the region tomorrow night
that brings us a high chance of rain. Before that arrives,
there appears to be a very subtle wave moving through the
central Rockies that could brings us spotty showers through the
day Sunday, with highs again generally in the middle to upper
70s.

When the stronger wave arrives tomorrow night, rain chances
increase to 50-80%, with one quarter to one inch of rain
possible. Many of the CAMs have stronger and possibly severe
storms developing in north central by 4-6 pm. And there`s a
window of opportunity that a few stronger storms could move into
portions of eastern NE during the evening, thus SPC has moved
the marginal risk of severe storms a little farther east than
previously forecast. Hail and damaging winds would be the
primary concerns, and while WPC has the entire are in a marginal
risk of excessive heavy rainfall, we should able to easily
absorb the amounts that are forecast.

There could be spotty lingering showers Monday morning, but
realistically, the rain pushes out pretty early on Monday. Highs
Monday still in the mid to upper 70s, but could be around 80
near the NE/KS border.

Through the remainder of the forecast, there will be a few
additional chances for showers and storms, and especially during
the nighttime hours, although confidence in the details is a
little low. While the overall, mean pattern is similar among the
major models, there are subtle timing and placement issues with
precipitation chances. Thus model blends have 20-50% chances of
rain every period from Monday night through the end of the week.

Regarding temperatures, highs Tuesday still in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, below normal, but temperatures by Wednesday and
beyond reach closer to normal into the lower to middle 80s
through the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with light
southerly winds forecast overnight. Sunday brings a lowering
deck. BKN100 will turn BKN050 by Sunday evening with an
increasing chance of showers, mostly after 00Z Monday (Sunday
eve). Winds will remain out of the south through it all.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Nicolaisen