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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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515 FXUS63 KOAX 102308 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 608 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected across the region through Tuesday, then back to near normal temperatures (widespread 80s) for Wednesday and beyond. - Rain chances return Sunday into early Monday with potential for a few stronger storms in portions of eastern Nebraska Sunday evening. - Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the upcoming work week, especially during the evening and overnight hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Quiet weather expected tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies with low temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 50s. There is a short wave currently moving through the Pacific Northwest, and this will move into the region tomorrow night that brings us a high chance of rain. Before that arrives, there appears to be a very subtle wave moving through the central Rockies that could brings us spotty showers through the day Sunday, with highs again generally in the middle to upper 70s. When the stronger wave arrives tomorrow night, rain chances increase to 50-80%, with one quarter to one inch of rain possible. Many of the CAMs have stronger and possibly severe storms developing in north central by 4-6 pm. And there`s a window of opportunity that a few stronger storms could move into portions of eastern NE during the evening, thus SPC has moved the marginal risk of severe storms a little farther east than previously forecast. Hail and damaging winds would be the primary concerns, and while WPC has the entire are in a marginal risk of excessive heavy rainfall, we should able to easily absorb the amounts that are forecast. There could be spotty lingering showers Monday morning, but realistically, the rain pushes out pretty early on Monday. Highs Monday still in the mid to upper 70s, but could be around 80 near the NE/KS border. Through the remainder of the forecast, there will be a few additional chances for showers and storms, and especially during the nighttime hours, although confidence in the details is a little low. While the overall, mean pattern is similar among the major models, there are subtle timing and placement issues with precipitation chances. Thus model blends have 20-50% chances of rain every period from Monday night through the end of the week. Regarding temperatures, highs Tuesday still in the upper 70s to lower 80s, below normal, but temperatures by Wednesday and beyond reach closer to normal into the lower to middle 80s through the remainder of the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions persist through the TAF period with light southerly winds forecast overnight. Sunday brings a lowering deck. BKN100 will turn BKN050 by Sunday evening with an increasing chance of showers, mostly after 00Z Monday (Sunday eve). Winds will remain out of the south through it all. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...Nicolaisen