462
FXUS63 KOAX 111106
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
606 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return today into early Monday with potential for
  a few stronger storms in portions of eastern Nebraska this
  evening.

- Below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected
  across the region through Tuesday, then back to near normal
  temperatures (widespread 80s) for Wednesday and beyond.

- Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the
  upcoming work week, especially during the evening through
  early morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Early this morning some shortwave energy was pushing through
western NE, bringing some showers and few isolated
thunderstorms. These will continue to push eastward through the
day and should bring our area at least some spotty precip.
However, they`ll likely be on a diminishing trend as they push
east of the primary (modest) moisture plume.

Heading into this evening, another stronger shortwave trough
currently over ID/MT will approach and lead to some more
widespread shower and storm development. Initial activity should
fire over SD into north-central NE and push southeast into our
area through the evening hours. Strong vertical shear should
lend itself to storm organization, though guidance is in good
agreement that moisture and instability in this neck of the
woods will be quite limited with consensus suggesting dewpoints
in the 50s to lower 60s and only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE.
Therefore, things should weaken again as they move in, though
can`t completely rule out a few stronger to isolated severe
storms sneaking into eastern NE with gusty winds and hail being
the primary threats. However, with the strong forcing and low
level moisture transport ramping up this evening, do expect
fairly widespread rainfall across the area into early Monday
afternoon, though amounts will likely vary quite a bit, ranging
from a tenth of an inch to right around an inch. Latest HREF
guidance does depict the greatest chances (around 50-80%) for
1/2" inch along a roughly 3-county-wide band across northeast
NE, through the Omaha metro and into southwest/south-central IA.
Chances for 1/2" quickly taper off to the southwest of said
band (20% or less), though are slightly higher right along the
NE/KS border where moisture transport will be pointing.

By Monday night into Tuesday, upper level ridging currently
over the western CONUS will start to push into the area and
begin a slight warming trend through the remainder of the week.
We`ll remain below average for this time of year both Monday and
Tuesday (70s to lower 80s), but widespread highs in the 80s
look to make a return by Wednesday. Despite the the ridging, we
will continue to see periodic shower and storm chances (20-50%)
as various shortwave troughs ripple through the flow throughout
the week. Still some questions on exact timing and placement,
though chances will peak during the evening through early
morning hours as low level moisture transport strengthens. At
this time, severe weather chances look to be rather low, though
Wednesday into Thursday would likely be the most favored period,
as we start to get a little more moisture return by then.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

There`s a slight (15-20%) chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska throughout the day today,
however confidence in whether or not they will actually impact
the TAF sites remains too low to include a mention at this time.
A better chance (40-70%) for storms will arrive after 00Z this
evening and linger through the final few hours of this TAF
period. While the majority of the forecast period is expected
to remain VFR, MVFR ceilings could edge into KOFK and KLNK by
06Z tonight. Outside of the potential for a few stronger gusts
within the thunderstorms, winds will generally remain light and
southerly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG