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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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462 FXUS63 KOAX 111106 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return today into early Monday with potential for a few stronger storms in portions of eastern Nebraska this evening. - Below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected across the region through Tuesday, then back to near normal temperatures (widespread 80s) for Wednesday and beyond. - Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the upcoming work week, especially during the evening through early morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Early this morning some shortwave energy was pushing through western NE, bringing some showers and few isolated thunderstorms. These will continue to push eastward through the day and should bring our area at least some spotty precip. However, they`ll likely be on a diminishing trend as they push east of the primary (modest) moisture plume. Heading into this evening, another stronger shortwave trough currently over ID/MT will approach and lead to some more widespread shower and storm development. Initial activity should fire over SD into north-central NE and push southeast into our area through the evening hours. Strong vertical shear should lend itself to storm organization, though guidance is in good agreement that moisture and instability in this neck of the woods will be quite limited with consensus suggesting dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s and only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. Therefore, things should weaken again as they move in, though can`t completely rule out a few stronger to isolated severe storms sneaking into eastern NE with gusty winds and hail being the primary threats. However, with the strong forcing and low level moisture transport ramping up this evening, do expect fairly widespread rainfall across the area into early Monday afternoon, though amounts will likely vary quite a bit, ranging from a tenth of an inch to right around an inch. Latest HREF guidance does depict the greatest chances (around 50-80%) for 1/2" inch along a roughly 3-county-wide band across northeast NE, through the Omaha metro and into southwest/south-central IA. Chances for 1/2" quickly taper off to the southwest of said band (20% or less), though are slightly higher right along the NE/KS border where moisture transport will be pointing. By Monday night into Tuesday, upper level ridging currently over the western CONUS will start to push into the area and begin a slight warming trend through the remainder of the week. We`ll remain below average for this time of year both Monday and Tuesday (70s to lower 80s), but widespread highs in the 80s look to make a return by Wednesday. Despite the the ridging, we will continue to see periodic shower and storm chances (20-50%) as various shortwave troughs ripple through the flow throughout the week. Still some questions on exact timing and placement, though chances will peak during the evening through early morning hours as low level moisture transport strengthens. At this time, severe weather chances look to be rather low, though Wednesday into Thursday would likely be the most favored period, as we start to get a little more moisture return by then. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 554 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 There`s a slight (15-20%) chance for a few showers and thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska throughout the day today, however confidence in whether or not they will actually impact the TAF sites remains too low to include a mention at this time. A better chance (40-70%) for storms will arrive after 00Z this evening and linger through the final few hours of this TAF period. While the majority of the forecast period is expected to remain VFR, MVFR ceilings could edge into KOFK and KLNK by 06Z tonight. Outside of the potential for a few stronger gusts within the thunderstorms, winds will generally remain light and southerly. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...KG