260
FXUS63 KOAX 091934
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
234 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much of the next week will be dry, but there are small chances
  for rain today through Saturday morning. The best chance
  currently appears to be on Wednesday when scattered storms are
  expected to develop.

- Intensifying heat will build into parts of the region by the
  weekend, with heat index readings of 100 to 110 degrees
  likely, especially Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

This Tuesday afternoon, the remnants of Beryl are moving off to
our east, with the edges of the cirrus plume in central IA.
Water vapor imagery indicated a weak elongated trough dropping
into northern Nebraska. There is a widespread shallow cumulus
field across the forecast area with some slightly deeper cumulus
closer to this trough axis in northeast NE...moving toward the
southeast. It is likely that a few of these deeper cumulus will
further deepen and produce convective showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm as we go into the evening hours. Most of the region
will remain dry though as coverage should be pretty minimal.

A more organized short wave trough drops south into our forecast
area Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Expect this
to help force some early morning elevated convection...and
additional convection by peak heating of the afternoon. These
late afternoon storms should have a bit more ample instability
available, but very little wind shear. Severe storms are not
particularly likely, but it is a non-zero chance that a storm or
two could produce severe hail or that a small cluster could
organize a strong to severe cold pool for a few hours late
Wednesday. The next decent short wave trough moves over the area
from the northwest on Friday into early Saturday, and once again
may be able to support some marginally strong to severe
storms... but the overall potential appears low.

Saturday into Sunday and Monday will feature hotter temperatures
as the western ridge builds closer to our area. This will bring
increasingly likelihood of sunny/clear conditions with warm
advection aloft and at the surface. Low level flow should have a
slight southwesterly component, which may slightly limit the
intensity of dewpoints in the afternoon hours...but this is also
nearing the annual peak of evapotranspiration, and anticipate
dewpoints being in the mid to upper 70s which lends strong
confidence to peak heat index readings in the 105 to 110 range
over parts of the area...especially on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions with scattered clouds based around 5000 ft AGL
will be common this afternoon. Winds will be light, mainly from
the north, becoming more westerly and remaining light after
04UTC. Do expect isolated showers or a thunderstorm to develop
in the region, mainly between 19-00 UTC today, and again
possible after 12 UTC tomorrow...but coverage should be sparse
so have not included in TAF but will update if needed.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Barjenbruch