735
FXUS63 KOAX 120435
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1135 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase to 50 to 80 percent tonight, small
  potential for a strong storm across eastern NE this evening.

- Below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected
  across the region through Tuesday, then back to near normal
  temperatures (widespread 80s) for Wednesday and beyond.

- Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the
  upcoming work week, especially during the evening through
  early morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

It has been mostly cloudy to cloudy today with cool temperatures
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There were a few spotty sprinkles
this morning that generally didn`t measure. And additional
spotty, isolated heavier showers have developed this afternoon.
There is a short wave moving off the eastern edge of the
northern Rockies, and this is expected to help generate more
widespread shower and storms moving from west to east. The
severe weather threat generally remains west of the forecast
area tonight, although there still is a window of opportunity
for a stronger storm across eastern NE this evening, overall the
severe weather threat is low in our area. Storms do have the
potential for heavy downpours, and rainfall by morning could
average from one to two tenths on the light side, to as much as
an inch for some areas. Low temperatures tonight drop into the
lower 60s.

There could be a few lingering showers along/east of the
Missouri River Monday morning, but the afternoon should be dry
with still below normal temperatures mostly in the lower to
middles, but could reach the lower 80s near the NE/KS border.

The next wave moving through the mean upper ridge that remains
to our west could graze southeast NE along the KS border by
Tuesday morning, and the northwestern extent of that system
could impact parts of eastern NE, but doubtful any of the rain
could make it to southwest IA. Tuesday should still be cooler
than normal with highs in the middle to upper 70s.

The next shortwave pushing through the mean ridge comes into
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing Pops back in
to the 50-60% range, with another one quarter to one half inch
of rain possible. Wednesday sees temperatures climbing a little
closer to normal mostly into the 80s, with highs into the upper
80s near the KS border.

The wave train continues, with another upper level wave bringing
more rain chances to the region Wednesday night, with rain
chances again increasing to 50-60%, with another one quarter to
one half inch of rain possible. Highs Thursday in the 80s,
again, closer to normal.

The remainder of the forecast has small daily chances for rain,
but the confidence in the details remains low. The models begin
to diverge, and the blending of the various components results
in generally climatological Pops Thursday night through Sunday,
with high temperatures remaining in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are quickly becoming less
numerous as they push east. Have reduced the chances of
measurable precip for OMA now to VCSH through about 07Z. Have
maintained -TSRA at LNK and OFK.

Expect some IFR cigs west of the Missouri River at OFK and LNK
around sunrise. Cigs will slowly lift over the course of Monday
becoming VFR by the afternoon.

Easterly winds prevail through the 24 hour TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Nicolaisen