176
FXUS63 KOAX 120809
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
309 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected
  across the region through Tuesday, then back to near normal
  temperatures (widespread 80s) for Wednesday and beyond.

- Periodic shower and storm chances continue through the work
  week, especially during the evening through early morning
  hours. The entire area has a 60+ percent chance of seeing at
  least 1/2" of rain through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The well-advertised showers and storms associated with a strong
shortwave trough had largely passed to the east as of 3 AM, but
a few spotty storms were lingering in the area with low level
moisture transport pointing toward the area. Instability
remained modest, with SPC objective mesoanalysis indicating
around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, but deep layer shear remained strong,
providing some degree of storm organization. As a result, a
storm or two could be strong enough to produce hail and gusty
winds through around 7 AM, but severe weather is rather
unlikely. After that, a few spotty showers could linger in parts
of the area today, but shouldn`t amount to much and most should
stay dry. Otherwise, it`ll be another cooler and fairly cloudy
day for most of the area, with highs in the 70s, though
decreasing cloud cover near the NE/KS border should allow
temperatures to climb into the lower 80s.

For tonight through Tuesday morning, while larger scale upper
level ridging will start to push in, an embedded shortwave
trough currently over the Four Corners region will slide
through, bringing another shot of showers and storms. Still some
questions on just how far north into the area the precip will
extend with CAMs keeping most of it in KS and many larger scale
models/ensemble members bringing it north to at least Interstate
80. As a result, keeping precip chances in the 40-50% range
near the NE/KS border, tapering off to around 10-20% north of
Interstate 80. With limited shear and instability, not expecting
any severe weather at this time. Rain chances should taper off
Tuesday afternoon, though we`ll remain cooler-than-average with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

We`ll continue to see periodic shower and storm chances through
at least the remainder of the work week as a series of
shortwave troughs slide through the area. Current model
consensus suggests chances will peak during the evening through
early morning hours with perhaps some spotty light showers
during the day (similar to what we saw Monday and what we`ll see
today). Severe weather chances still look to be on the lower
side, but we do start to get a little bit more moisture and
instability in the area by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as
a warm front surges northward through the area, so that may be a
time period to watch. Regarding rainfall amounts, ensemble
guidance suggests the entire area will have a 60+ percent chance
of at least 1/2 inch through Thursday and 40-70 percent chance
for 1 inch. So it does look like there will be some decent
rainfall to be had, but of course some will likely miss out as
well. Otherwise, the aforementioned front will also bring a
return to near- average temperatures with widespread highs in
the 80s looking to last into next week.

For late Thursday into the weekend, guidance is starting to
show a little more agreement that a stronger shortwave trough
will slide through Thursday into Friday with a cutoff low
eventually spinning up to our east. This will leave us under
northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building in for
the weekend. This should lead to an overall drier period
(assuming the precip associated with the low stays to our east),
though there remain hints at some weak bits of shortwave energy
diving southeastward at times and bringing additional light
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are quickly becoming less
numerous as they push east. Have reduced the chances of
measurable precip for OMA now to VCSH through about 07Z. Have
maintained -TSRA at LNK and OFK.

Expect some IFR cigs west of the Missouri River at OFK and LNK
around sunrise. Cigs will slowly lift over the course of Monday
becoming VFR by the afternoon.

Easterly winds prevail through the 24 hour TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Nicolaisen