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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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421 FXUS63 KOAX 162313 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 613 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Canadian wildfire smoke will remain over the area overnight and may linger through the weekend. - Seasonal temperatures with a small chance (15-25%) of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions into the extended periods. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 H5 analysis shows a cutoff low spinning over the arrowhead of Minnesota with an omega shape to the height contours between it and the cutoff low off the Aleutians. The weather is quiet enough today that I had to google the correct name for a height contour: isohypse. Afternoon temperatures are running close to normal seasonal highs with a couple of 90s mixed in with the mid-80s to upper 80s. Northwesterly winds of 5-15 mph are easily ignored. Canadian wildfire smoke has lent the sky a bit of a milky appearance. That smoke is thickest north of the Platte River in NE Nebraska. While the mid-levels should be clearing over the next 24 hours, surface smoke concentrations are forecast to tick up a bit; worth noting for those who are very sensitive to air quality. Beyond the thin smoke, very little will impede a view of the stars and maybe the odd Perseid meteor. Have removed the bias- correction of tonight`s lows leaving things a little cooler thanks to the calm winds and clear skies. Clear skies continue Saturday with high temps forecast to peak just below the numbers of today thanks to continued northerly winds and weak CAA. Lawnmowers across Iowa and Nebraska will be whirring. Sunday brings a slight chance of precipitation to the western tier of counties of the forecast area, though I`ve kept PoPs below 15%. A shortwave will dive south-southeast in the amplified flow. Best chances of precip/thunder will be draped across the central part of Nebraska. Generally only expect an increase in high level clouds here. Sundays highs will be nearly repeated on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before beginning to warm mid week under the influence of the ridge meandering east. The week`s best chance of precipitation appears to be on Tuesday as a surface low traverses the Dakotas and its attendant cold front brings a chance of showers and thunder. From this much- too-early vantage, severe weather does not look likely. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period with north winds of less than 12 kt. While some smoke is present at the surface and aloft, concentrations should remain low enough such that visibilities will not be impacted. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Mead