022
FXUS63 KOAX 170246
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
946 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Canadian wildfire smoke will remain over the area overnight
  and may linger through the weekend.

- Seasonal temperatures with a small chance (15-25%) of showers
  and thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Otherwise,
  mostly dry conditions into the extended periods.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

H5 analysis shows a cutoff low spinning over the arrowhead of
Minnesota with an omega shape to the height contours between it
and the cutoff low off the Aleutians. The weather is quiet
enough today that I had to google the correct name for a height
contour: isohypse.

Afternoon temperatures are running close to normal seasonal
highs with a couple of 90s mixed in with the mid-80s to upper
80s. Northwesterly winds of 5-15 mph are easily ignored.
Canadian wildfire smoke has lent the sky a bit of a milky
appearance. That smoke is thickest north of the Platte River in
NE Nebraska. While the mid-levels should be clearing over the
next 24 hours, surface smoke concentrations are forecast to tick
up a bit; worth noting for those who are very sensitive to air
quality.

Beyond the thin smoke, very little will impede a view of the
stars and maybe the odd Perseid meteor. Have removed the bias-
correction of tonight`s lows leaving things a little cooler
thanks to the calm winds and clear skies.

Clear skies continue Saturday with high temps forecast to peak
just below the numbers of today thanks to continued northerly
winds and weak CAA. Lawnmowers across Iowa and Nebraska will be
whirring.

Sunday brings a slight chance of precipitation to the western
tier of counties of the forecast area, though I`ve kept PoPs
below 15%. A shortwave will dive south-southeast in the
amplified flow. Best chances of precip/thunder will be draped
across the central part of Nebraska. Generally only expect an
increase in high level clouds here. Sundays highs will be nearly
repeated on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before beginning to
warm mid week under the influence of the ridge meandering east.

The week`s best chance of precipitation appears to be on Tuesday
as a surface low traverses the Dakotas and its attendant cold
front brings a chance of showers and thunder. From this much-
too-early vantage, severe weather does not look likely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
north winds of less than 12 kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Mead