619
FXUS63 KOAX 032325
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 15-30% chance of spotty storms before 4 PM Friday
  with higher chances (50-70%) arriving thereafter into
  Saturday, but questions remain on exact timing. A few could be
  strong to severe (5% chance) with damaging wind and heavy
  rain/localized flooding the primary threats.

- Daily 20-30% chances of showers and storms Sunday evening
  through next week. The chance for hail, wind, or tornadoes
  looks low (5% or less), but repeated rounds of thunderstorms
  could lead to a flooding threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Quiet, warm, and humid across the area early this afternoon
with an upper level ridge axis pushing in. Temperatures as of
3 PM were mostly in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower
70s, yielding heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough was pushing through the Desert
Southwest and eventually move into the area Friday, bringing a
chance for showers and storms for Independence Day. The general
idea is that persistent southerly flow will continue to usher in
warm, moist air ahead of an eastward advancing surface trough
through the day with temperatures topping out in the upper 80s
to lower 90s and afternoon dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s. So hot and humid again, but 20-30 mph gusts should help at
least a little. For the afternoon, could see some diurnally-
driven spotty storm development, especially across eastern NE,
though increasing clouds and warm air aloft should somewhat
limit instability. Right now, precip chances sit around 15-30%
through 4 PM, increasing as you move west. Meanwhile, storms
will eventually develop along the surface trough, most likely
across western into central NE, and push into the forecast area
somewhere into the 4-7 PM window, but still some differences in
exact timing and how far east they`ll make it. For what it`s
worth, latest guidance holds chances below 50% through midnight
for most of the area, though as you go west of Norfolk and
Columbus, you get into the 60-70% range. You`ll definitely want
to check on the latest forecast on Friday for any evening
festivities.

Regarding storm strength, shear looks to remain pretty weak and
the aforementioned limited instability should generally lead to
a fairly low-end severe weather threat (SPC outlook keeps us in
a level 1 of 5, or "marginal" risk) with damaging wind being
the primary threat (downbursts could be possible). However, with
precipitable water values nearing 2 inches and warm cloud
depths over 4 km, storms will be efficient rain-producers and
could lead to a heavy rain/localized flooding threat if anyone
sees repeated rounds.

The surface trough looks to linger in the area on Saturday with
continued shower and storm development in its vicinity. Can`t
completely rule out a few stronger to isolated severe storms in
far southeast NE/far southwest IA Saturday afternoon, but once
again instability and shear will be quite limited. It looks like
we`ll have a brief period of ridging and dry weather favored on
Sunday before we see various bits of shortwave energy slide
through and give us almost daily 20-40% rain chances through
next week with confidence in exact timing and strength of any
given system being rather low. Machine learning severe weather
guidance continues to suggest severe weather chances will remain
rather low (around 5- 10%), but just enough to pay attention to
as we go forward, especially if some locations start seeing
repeated rounds of heavy rain. Otherwise, temperatures will
remain seasonable, with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 and
lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions expected to hold through the TAF period under
mostly clear skies. Winds out of the south overnight will
increase again Friday afternoon with gusts to 25 kt. We could
see a couple isolated showers or storms Friday afternoon, but
better chance for storms will hold off until after 00Z Friday
night.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...McCoy