Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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048 FXUS63 KOAX 130341 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1041 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Spotty showers are possible tonight south of I-80. - Dangerous heat is expected for much of the area this weekend into Monday, with heat index readings of 100 to 110+ degrees likely. Sunday and Monday will be the hottest days. - More widespread storm chances (20-40%) arrive Monday night and linger through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Dry conditions across the area today align with the removal of the marginal convective outlook for the day. CAMs, inconsistent from run to run this morning, are drying out as well. Believe the EML`s capping should hold through the afternoon. Have reduced POPs to sub-25% for the next 24 hours with best chances overnight near the Kansas/Nebraska state line. The upper level ridge that has been garnering headlines and setting record temperatures on the other side of the Rockies for the past few days will continue to nose into the central plains as the eastern CONUS trof begins to break down. Heights and max temps climb through the weekend with some locations (north) forecast to peak on Sunday afternoon and some (south) waiting for Monday afternoon to hit the week`s zenith. Despite being on the 7th page of the calendar, temperatures at 850 hPa and 700 hPa will be near the 100th percentile this weekend as will the specific humidity at 925 hPa. Have continued to push dewpoints higher than most guidance due to the climatological peak of the Corn Belt`s evapotranspiration. Dewpoints this afternoon are already outperforming the forecast, so Saturday and Sunday`s numbers may need to be boosted even further. Widespread dewpoints in the 70s are forecast each afternoon adding notable mugginess to the high heat. Didn`t have to spend much time collaborating on heat headlines with neighboring offices due to this CWA being ringed by heat advisories for Saturday. From 1pm to 8pm, apparent temps will run as high as 109F. Did not extend the advisory overnight as minimum apparent temps fall below the 75 degree criteria. This will help housing units with no A/C to cool off at least partially and temporarily. Have maintained the excessive heat watch for Sunday and Monday when some locations will be even hotter. Consecutive days of heat have been shown to increase heat related injuries and illnesses. Especially concerning will be the Lincoln and Omaha/CB metros as urban areas tend to better hold the heat through the night and vulnerable populations tend to be clustered. Monday will bring partial relief in the form of a cold front... at least to the northern half of the area. The extreme heat is forecast to hold on for one more day in areas south of I-80 where the front falls short. Max temps will peak in the lower to mid-90s north of the Platte River with triple digits possible south of it. The front continues to sag south on Tuesday and Wednesday. The front will help produce occasional chances for showers with POPs peaking at 30% or so for late Monday night (nocturnal jet) and even better chances forecast for Tuesday night. Increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and continued weak CAA. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday are consigned to the low 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1040 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Southeasterly winds will remain under 12 kts overnight while gradually shifting to southerly throughout the forecast period. A few clouds at FL250 will work their way through the area overnight. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for NEZ034-042>045-050>053-065>068. IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ043-055- 056-069-079-080-090-091. Excessive Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Wood