790
FXUS63 KOAX 151741
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
1241 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be another chance for severe storms Thursday
  afternoon and evening (5-15%) with primary hazards being
  damaging winds and large hail.

- Temperatures stay seasonably warm through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Today...

Severe storms pushed southeast of the forecast area just prior to
midnight last night. Heavy rain once again targeted the Omaha
metro area. prompting a flash flood warning, where automated
gauges reported amounts ranging from 2 to 5 inches over the last
24 hours.

By 3 AM temperatures had dipped into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Dry weather is expected to prevail through the morning, ahead of the
next approaching shortwave disturbance. CAMS hint at the potential
for a few showers to skirt across far northeast Nebraska in the
early afternoon, however a slightly better chance for a few strong
to severe storms will be between 3 PM to 9 PM this evening. A
frontal boundary will be draped across the southeastern portion of a
our forecast area by the late afternoon. While it certainly isn`t
set in stone, a couple of the latest CAM runs hint at a stray
vortmax kicking off a few storms in the post-frontal region,
where modest, yet sufficient lapse rates should reside. Bulk
shear vectors of around 30-40 kts could be sufficient enough to
support updrafts capable of producing hail up to 1" and gusty
winds up to 60 mph.

Friday and Beyond...

A ridge will build over the southwestern CONUS through the end of
the week, maintaining temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the
next several days. A few showers and storms could skirt the
Nebraska/Kansas border region Friday night, but most locations
should remain dry through the weekend.

While model consensus isn`t great at this time, we should see
multiple waves traversing the upper ridge, bringing a few glancing
blows of rain to the forecast area throughout the coming week. Given
the inconsistency amongst the various models, opted to maintain on
and off slight chance (15-20%) PoPs through the the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Rest of today: Main concern will be potential for scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening, mainly for OFK
19-21Z and OMA 22-01Z. Latest thinking is that most of this
should remain N/NE of LNK, but could be close. Should remain
primarly VFR, though can`t rule out a brief dip to MVFR if
stronger part of storm moves directly overhead. Winds will be NW
around 10kt. Confidence: Medium.

Rest of the period: VFR with decr clds and wind this evening.
Should remain clear overnight into Fri AM with lgt and vrbl wind
bec NW 5-10kt by midday Fri. Confidence: High.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Thies