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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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242 FXUS63 KOAX 152057 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE 357 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon through early evening. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Main risks are quarter size hail and 60 MPH wind gusts. - Fairly quiet tonight through the weekend with only a couple very slight chances (20%) for rain. Near to just below normal temperatures and seasonable humidity. - Low end chances (20-30%) for showers/storms return Tuesday into Wednesday, but best chances remain off to the west of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Main forecast concern in the short term is the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. A compact, but potent, vorticity max is located over the Siouxland area, helping to drive a narrow line of convection over NE Neb this afternoon. Another area of potential development will be along an outflow boundary, currently running from around Tekamah to York. Lastly, the primary synoptic cold front is draped across far SE Neb. The vort max is lifting E/ENE, further away from the SEward sinking cold front...casting some uncertainty on overall thunderstorm coverage through early evening. CAMs have struggled to get a handle on activity throughout the day today, which only adds to the uncertainty. With that said, there has certainly been run- to-run consistency that any activity through sunset will be fairly isolated and tend to be more driven by the vort lobe than the sfc front. So chances S of I-80 look really conditional and rather slim. However, SHOULD a storm develop anywhere this aftn, moderate instability and modest deep layer wind shear could support a marginally severe thunderstorm risk through around 7PM. Boundary layer cooling should lead to rapidly decreasing potential around sunset. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast actually looks fairly quiet, with mainly near to just below normal temperatures and seasonable humidity. The upper level pattern will really amplify heading into the weekend, with a deep trough (by August standards) over the eastern 1/3rd of the CONUS, and a strong upper ridge along the Rockies. Thus, the really active and cool weather looks to remain off to the E, and the really hot temperatures off to the W/SW over the central and southern High Plains. This leaves eastern NE and western IA left in the middle and generally near-average in terms of temperatures. As usual in highly amplified NW/NNW upper flow, the area will likely get brushed by several weak disturbances over the coming days, but deep moisture will be lacking and focused further W, just downstream of the upper ridge axis. Thus, there are some off and on rain chances in the extended forecast, but they are quite "low-end" (20-30%) and not really too much to get excited about if you`re looking for moisture. In fact, the 12Z EPS gives the LNK and OMA metros less than 10% chance for at least a half inch of moisture over the next 7 days, and only as high as 20-30% over the far N along NE/SD border. Overall, should be looking at an extended stretch of mostly quiet weather with seasonably comfortable temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Rest of today: Main concern will be potential for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening, mainly for OFK 19-21Z and OMA 22-01Z. Latest thinking is that most of this should remain N/NE of LNK, but could be close. Should remain primarily VFR, though can`t rule out a brief dip to MVFR if stronger part of storm moves directly overhead. Winds will be NW around 10kt. Confidence: Medium. Rest of the period: VFR with decr clds and wind this evening. Should remain clear overnight into Fri AM with lgt and vrbl wind bec NW 5-10kt by midday Fri. Confidence: High. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...00 AVIATION...