546
FXUS63 KOAX 202326
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
626 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will
  continue through this weekend before temperatures increase
  through next week.

- Widespread rain chances continue today and into Sunday. There
  are additional spotty rain chances into the start of the work
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Short Term (Today through Monday)

Visible satellite this afternoon shows a band of showers stretching
from eastern Oklahoma to southern Iowa, grazing the southeastern
corner of our CWA. The current upper level pattern depicts a closed
low over northern Ontario/Quebec and an omega blocking pattern over
the western CONUS. As a result, much of the area resides in
northwesterly upper level flow progressing towards northerly as the
western ridge nudges eastward through the weekend. A shortwave
slowly diving south from southwest Minnesota to IA/MO is responsible
for the scattered rain showers seen across the area today. PoPs
remain in the 20 to 30 percent range through this evening.
Severe weather potential remains low as instability and shear
across the area is meager, yet a couple lightning strikes will
certainly be possible. Northeast Nebraska could see funnel
development this afternoon as current surface analysis shows
sufficient CAPE in the low levels and an enhanced area of
vorticity thanks to the passing shortwave. Thick cloud cover
into the afternoon and our northwesterly flow aloft will keep
highs in the mid-70`s, much cooler than the climatological
average. Showers will taper off into the overnight hours where
light winds will be met with fog potential in the early morning.


Sunday will see similar conditions to today. Highs will take a
slight uptick to the upper 70s while mostly cloudy skies will
persist. Scattered showers will be possible through Sunday, yet PoPs
have decreased to the 10 to 20 percent range. Highs will
continue their slow ascent into the lower 80s on Monday. The
aforementioned shortwave will make its way into eastern Missouri
on Monday, bringing us one last day of scattered showers (PoPs
20 to 35 percent).

Long  Term (Tuesday through Friday)

Through next week, the aforementioned ridge will slowly push east
into the Central Plains. As a result, we will see a progressive rise
in temperatures back towards the seasonal average. Tuesday and
Wednesday will see highs in the mid 80s while the end of the work
week will push towards the upper 80s/low 90s. Tuesday could see some
light showers in western Iowa as our current system departs before
the rest of the week is met with dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Isolated thunderstorms across northeast Nebraska (KOFK) are
expected to weaken and dissipate by 03Z. Tonight, fog is
expected to develop across much of eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa (all TAF sites). Widespread MVFR visibilities of 3 to 5
miles is expected between 10Z and 14Z. There will also be the
chance (50 to 60 percent) of temporary reductions in visibility
of 1 to 2 miles at all TAF sites in the same time frame. LIFR
visibilities are not out of the question, with the greatest
potential (30 to 40 percent) at KOFK and KOMA between 11Z and
13Z. However, these probabilities are too low to include in TAFs
at this time, but may be included in the 06Z issuance if
confidence increases.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...Darrah