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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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626 FXUS63 KOAX 162323 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 623 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong to isolated severe storms could clip portions of northeast Nebraska from 5 to 11 PM this evening (20-40% chance of storms, 10-20% chance of severe storms). Hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. - An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will persist into next week. - Next widespread rain chances will be Friday afternoon into Saturday. There are additional spotty chances Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Main feature of note early this afternoon was a cold front sitting near the NE/SD border. This front will continue to sag south through the evening, helping to spark some showers and storms across central and possibly northeast NE (generally near and west of Highway 81). Farther to the south and east, clouds and spotty showers lingered through much of the morning, greatly limiting any destabilization and likely almost eliminating any severe weather threat in those areas. Even in northeast NE, instability does look somewhat limited per latest SPC mesoanalysis (1000 J/kg MUCAPE contour barely touches Boone county), with guidance trending slightly farther west with the primary CAPE gradient compared to the forecast yesterday at this time. As a result, the highest chances for severe weather should mostly remain to our west, but any storms that do get going in northeast NE would have 35-45 kts of 0-6 km shear to work with, suggesting some supercellular structures capable of large hail would be possible initially. Eventually expect a transition to more of a cluster/linear feature with the primary threat shifting to damaging winds. Can`t completely rule out a tornado with a boundary in the area, but low level shear looks quite weak. Storms should quickly weaken and mostly dissipate as they push southeast farther into our area. Some guidance does hint at fog development across northeast NE early Wednesday morning, favoring areas that receive rain and are able to clear out fast enough. However, model soundings suggest winds aloft could be a touch too strong for widespread development. For the remainder of Wednesday we`ll remain under the influence of cyclonic flow aloft with CAM reflectivity fields suggesting potential for a few spotty sprinkles/light showers. Model soundings do reveal a little instability in the cloud layer, but it`s pretty shallow, low levels are somewhat dry, and surface high pressure will be building in, so overall potential will be limited. All in all, probably less than a 10% chance we see something, but not 0%. Continued "cool" and mostly dry weather is favored into Thursday with surface high pressure remaining in control. In fact, the entire area is expected to bottom out in the 50s Wednesday night/Thursday morning, which by my quick, very unofficial look is the first time that`s happened since June 10th. Our next widespread shower and storm chances come Friday afternoon into Saturday with guidance in good agreement that a fairly potent shortwave trough dives southeastward into the area. Guidance does suggest there could be a little instability and shear to work with as it moves through, perhaps yielding a severe weather threat, but plenty of details to still be worked out, including exact timing which will certainly play a role. For what it`s worth the GEFS-based Colorado State Machine-Learning Probabilities suggest the highest chances for severe weather will stay across western NE. Guidance has trended toward precip lingering at least on and off through the weekend with suggestions that a cutoff low forms just to our south and spins somewhere over eastern KS/western MO, keeping at least southern portions of the forecast area within the associated precipitation shield. At this point, it doesn`t look like heavy rain by any means, but maybe enough to be annoying for weekend outdoor activities. Something to keep an eye on... Heading into next week, on and off precip chances (around 20%) continue with an amplified trough/cutoff low remaining somewhere in the region. Temperatures also stay below average for this time of year, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions through the period with northerly winds less than 12 knots. There could be some showers at KOFK 01-03z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...DeWald