703
FXUS63 KOAX 180624
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
124 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will
  persist into next week.

- Next widespread rain chances will be Friday evening into
  Sunday. There are additional spotty rain chances into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Short Term (Today)

The current upper level pattern brings northwesterly flow to the
region as we remain sandwiched between a positively tilted
trough centered over Ontario/Quebec and a ridge over the western
CONUS. Despite the southerly surface winds, high temperatures
are expected to remain below average and hovering around 80
today. Skies should stay mostly clear today, making a perfect
evening for some outdoor activities. Overnight lows will fall
around 60 to continue this refreshing streak of below normal
temperatures.

Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible (PoPs 25-40%)
Friday morning, primarily west of a line from Norfolk to Columbus,
NE, as a weak disturbances pushes over central Nebraska. Highs on
Friday will remain near 80. We could see some haze in the area
Friday as wildfire smoke moves in from the western CONUS. The next
chance for widespread precipitation will be Friday evening into
Saturday (PoPs 60-80%) as a shortwave trough traverses the area.
Severe weather potential remains low as the greatest axis of
instability remains in western Nebraska. Scattered to widespread
thunderstorms will continue into Saturday afternoon (PoP 30-50%).
High temperatures on Saturday will struggle to hit 75, greater than
10 degrees below our climatological average for mid July. Rainfall
totals are expected in the 0.50 to 1" range. WPC has much of the
area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Friday.

Precipitation chances will continue into Sunday (PoPs 20-40%) as an
upper level cutoff low spins over IA/MO. Rain chances should remain
scattered with weak instability keeping severe weather potential
low. Cool highs in the mid 70s will continue into Sunday. A similar
story will be present on Monday with scattered rain chances (PoPs 20-
30%) across the area as the aforementioned cutoff low shifts towards
the Great Lakes region.

Next week, the upper level pattern is expected to consist of
troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the western CONUS,
a typical look for the end of July. Temperatures are expected in the
80s with relatively calm weather besides a few precipitation chances
as shortwaves pass by the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with some clouds at
5000-6000 ft developing by mid to late Thursday morning. Expect
winds to remain light and generally easterly to southeasterly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...CA