819
FXUS63 KOAX 191941
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
241 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will
  persist into next week.

- Widespread rain chances into Sunday with localized flooding
  possible, especially from this afternoon into Saturday. There
  are additional spotty rain chances into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.Late this afternoon and tonight:

Early afternoon water vapor imagery indicates separate vorticity
maxima phasing across the Dakotas with an associated belt of
forcing for ascent contributing to the formation of a loosely
organized convective band stretching from northeast NE into
central NE as of 2 PM. Earlier storms over Cedar County remained
stationary and produced very heavy rainfall. But, now it
appears that an organizing cold pool is supporting slightly
faster storm motions across northeast NE. The inflow air mass to
the ongoing thunderstorms should continue to destabilize this
afternoon, allowing them to progress southeast through the area
this afternoon into evening. More organized severe weather
potential is expected to materialize to our southwest; however,
isolated occurrences of hail up to quarter size and/or wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest
storms. Heavy rainfall and potential flooding is also a concern,
as we have already seen today.

Some model data suggest that another round of showers and
thunderstorms will move into the area from the west/northwest
late this evening into tonight. Should that scenario unfold as
advertised, some potential would exist for a strong storm or two
capable of gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rain.


.This weekend:

The 12z global models indicate the formation of a mid/upper-
level low over southern MN/northern IA Saturday with that
feature drifting southwest Saturday night into Sunday in
response to a strong vorticity lobe pivoting south through the
mid MO Valley. Forcing for ascent associated with those upper-
air features will support periodic shower and thunderstorm
activity with some potential for locally heavy rainfall due to
the slow-moving nature of any storms. Widespread clouds and
areas of precipitation will limit daytime heating with
seasonably cool highs in the 70s.


.Next week:

There is fairly good model agreement in early week troughing
from the Great Lakes through the mid MO Valley. However, by the
latter half of the work week, the models begin to diverge on
how quickly that feature shifts east of our area. As such, it
still appears that we will see continuing shower and
thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday with greater
uncertainty in precipitation chances thereafter. In regard to
temperatures, it still appears we will start the week with
below-normal highs (in the 70s to low 80s) with near-normal
readings expected by the end of the work week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually increasing in areal
coverage across portions of north-central and northeast NE as of
late morning. And, latest model guidance suggests that activity
will move/develop southeast this afternoon, reaching KOFK by
about 19z and KLNK and KOMA by approximately 21 and 22z,
respectively. That initial activity should last from 1-2 hours
at the terminal locations before moving to the southeast.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly
likely late this evening into the overnight hours. Prevailing
VFR conditions could briefly degrade to MVFR as the initial band
of showers and storms moves through the area this afternoon.
More widespread and longer-lived MVFR conditions are anticipated
late tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead