178
FXUS63 KOAX 210856
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
356 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will
  continue today before increasing through the week.

- Scattered showers are possible Sunday and Monday before drier
  weather builds in alongside the warmer temps.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.TODAY...

I don`t think I`ve ever seen all 24 (BIE is out) AWOS/ASOS sites
reporting no wind, but that`s what`s going on at 0845Z. Patchy
fog has developed in the central portion of the forecast area
with visibility dipping below 1/4 mile at times. Have issued a
dense fog advisory through 14Z (9am). Played it conservative
with the advisory`s footprint, leaving a good chance for
expansion in the next couple of hours.

The upper pattern continues to be dominated by an amplified
ridge over the Rockies and trofing over the Great Lakes with a
cutoff low spinning over Iowa.

Current temperatures are in the lower to mid-60s, only about
10-15 degrees cooler than today`s notably cool afternoon highs.
Sunday`s high temperatures should best those set on Saturday by
a few degrees, though still fall shy of seasonal norms. Mostly
cloudy skies will end up partly sunny by lunch.

Isolated showers developed across the area yesterday and are
possible again today, though probably less numerous. The cutoff
H5 low over Iowa is producing some of the coolest H7 and H5
temps in the CONUS. Low level vorticity is not remarkable, but
with the minor surface CAPE and steep low-level lapse rates
forecast, expect the environment to resume its capability of
producing some "cold- air" non- supercell funnels. They are
unlikely to touch down and even less likely to produce any
damage.

.WORK WEEK...

Monday might bring the best chance of precip (20-40%) with a
mostly unchanged H5 pattern. The H5 low continues to spin
counterclockwise over Iowa but will transition from a closed low
to an open one. Showers will be most likely in the warm
afternoon hours as highs peak in the lower 80s.

The rest of the week is expected to be dry with the amplified
ridge out west nosing east into the Great Plains by Wednesday.
Temps continue their slow climb with some lower 90s forecast by
Friday afternoon. This is when the thermal axis will pass
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Areas of fog are expected to develop this morning after 09Z
across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Though not in the
TAFs, LIFR visibilities will be possible (30-40 percent) at all
TAF sites between 10Z and 13Z. After 13Z, fog is expected to
quickly dissipate leading to VFR conditions tomorrow. There is
some uncertainty with wind direction after 21Z. Some models
suggest southerly winds will become northeasterly by the end of
the forecast period, though the majority of solutions keep
winds southerly. Winds will remain under 10 knots through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Darrah